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E-mini S&P in Position to Retest 4266.00 – 4137.50 Support

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 18, 2022, 19:51 UTC

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 4374.50.

E-mini S&P 500 Index

In this article:

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures indexes slumped on Friday as escalating tensions in Ukraine amid fears of an imminent Russian invasion prompted investors to dump risky assets in the run-up to a long weekend. All major S&P 500 sectors were in the red, with energy shares leading losses due to weaker oil prices.

At 19:27 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4360.25, down 14.25 or -0.33%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $436.24, down $0.82 or -0.19%.

Big banks declined as did mega-cap growth stocks including Amazon.com, Google parent Alphabet and Tesla Inc.

Expiration of monthly options contracts was also seen adding to the volatility ahead of the U.S. market holiday on Monday for Presidents’ Day.

Daily March E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the intraday low at 4321.00 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up.

On the downside, the first support is a Fibonacci level at 4327.50. This stopped the selling earlier today. ‘

Additional support is a long-term retracement zone at 4266.00 to 4137.50. This area stopped a steep decline at 4212.75 on January 24.

On the upside, the resistance is spread out with the first target a 50% level at 4419.50, followed by a retracement zone at 4510.50 to 4580.75.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to 4374.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4374.50 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first target is 4327.50.

The index traded through the Fibonacci level at 4327.50 early Friday, but the selling stopped at 4321.00. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into the major 50% level at 4266.00, followed by the main bottom at 4212.75, 61.8% level at 4137.50 and the June 18, 2021 main bottom at 4129.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4374.50 will signal the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into a 50% level at 4419.50. This is the last potential resistance before the 4484.50 main top.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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