Ethereum Price News: Drop to $1.6K on the Table If ETH Long-Standing Support Falters

Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 25% over the past 30 days as liquidations have accelerated after it broke below the $2,000 threshold.

In the past 3 days alone, over $3.2 billion in crypto long positions have been wiped out of the market. Geopolitical tensions continue to rise as President Donald Trump threatened once again to increase tariffs on more than 60 countries.

Market sentiment has quickly soured. The Fear and Greed Index just dipped to Extreme Fear for the first time since March, reflecting a shift in investors’ attitude in just a couple of months.

Net inflows to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the top altcoin further confirm this, as investors have been withdrawing money from these vehicles for 12 days in a row.

This streak of outflows further confirms that we are in the midst of a strong risk-off move. In our latest ETH price prediction, we emphasized that losing the $2,000 threshold should trigger a much steeper drop for the token.

Ethereum Threatens to Invalidate Long-Dated Buy Signal If It Drops Below $1.8K

We have been tracking for weeks what we see as Ethereum’s cycle low at $1,800 based on a long-dated buy signal in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This signal has yielded positive results the last three times it popped up and features a 100% win ratio.

Today, we are retesting that $1,800 threshold once again, as we predicted recently. This means that ETH is facing a make-or-break moment that could either mark the definite end of this bear market or its continuation.

These retests have happened in two out of the last three weekly RSI buy signals. In both cases, the price started to rally shortly afterward. Today’s move is a retest of the strength of this demand zone.

If ETH fails to stay above this mark, we may see a much stronger drop to $1,400 at least, meaning a downside risk of 22% in the near term.

However, if the opposite occurs and this support level holds up, we envision a strong move to $2,400 first, followed by a strong rally to at least $6,000 in the next 12 to 18 months.

Next Stop $1,600 If This Weekly Signal Fails

In January this year, we also outlined possible scenarios for Ethereum based on how the price behaved around the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). Previous bearish breakouts below this key line had resulted in strong drops for the token.

We got a bearish breakout in January, and ETH dipped $1,741. Then, we got a retest of the $2,220 resistance and an instant rejection of this key level.

This was followed by another strong drop, and we now see the $1,600 as the potential landing zone for this altcoin if the $1,800 level is wiped.

If that weekly signal fails (again, first time that would happen in 8 years), we still think a cycle bottom is nearby. This drop could be considered a buying opportunity for buy-and-hold investors who share that bullish view.

Finally, looking at the daily chart, we are already seeing some strong buying at $1,800. Trading volumes are quite high right now at $31 billion, accounting for 14% of ETH’s circulating market cap.

If we get a strong rally in the following two to three days, that should be the signal we need to confirm that this historical pattern is once again valid. If that’s the case, fasten your seatbelts as ETH could skyrocket shortly afterward.