Ethereum Price News: Odds of a Bullish Breakout Rise as $2K Floor Holds

Ethereum (ETH) has gone up by more than 5% in the past 24 hours after President Donald Trump threatened to force Iran’s hand to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices retreated a bit as a result, as the head of state said that the Middle East country would face a living “hell” if they don’t let ships go through the narrow passage.

Geopolitical tensions have been behind the latest decline in the price of cryptocurrencies, as analysts revisited their projections for interest rates for 2026.

Analysts No Longer Expect a Rate Cut in 2026

Based on data from FedWatch, the market no longer expects a rate cut this year, as higher energy costs could result in higher inflation. This situation should be enough to deter officials within the Federal Reserve from cutting rates, which is not good news for risky assets like cryptos.

However, Trump’s threats contributed to today’s spike in the price of Ethereum, pushing the top altcoin back to its key resistance level at $2,150.

We have identified this former supply zone as the most relevant price zone that ETH must overcome to trigger a short squeeze and a potential rally toward $2,800.

Trading volumes have more than doubled in the past 24 hours as a result of the move, rising to $16 billion and accounting for 6% of the token’s circulating market cap.

Meanwhile, nearly $280 million worth of short positions in the crypto market have been blown up amid the spike, as other tokens like Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) are also rising by 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.

Market Sentiment Improves Amid the Rally

Ethereum-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended last week with mild outflows of $42 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index experienced a strong recovery, rising from a previous reading of 23 (Fear) to 38 (Almost Neutral) at the time of writing.

This could be an early sign that investors are recovering their confidence that the market could be either near a local bottom or has already hit it.

In Ethereum’s case, the price found strong support at $2,000 recently, making another higher low and forming a rising trend line that could anticipate a breakout of the $2,150 ceiling during the week.

Ethereum (ETH) Could Rally to $2,800 If the Strait is Reopened

The daily chart shows that ETH has retreated off this mark multiple times in the past, except for that one time in March 16 when we got a “fakeout”.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has surged above the 14-day moving average and currently sits at 55. If we get a decisive move above 60, that may mark the beginning of another rally toward $2,800.

Early spikes in short liquidations, triggered by small moves like today’s, tend to be considered a positive signal of an imminent short squeeze if ETH breaks through this ceiling.

A move to $2,700 – $2,800 would not necessarily mean the end of this bearish cycle, as it would still rank as a normal reversion to the mean, since the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits at that level.

The outcome of the situation in the Middle East is still the most relevant macro factor to keep an eye on. If the U.S. manages to reopen the Strait and oil prices fall, that could trigger ETH’s next rally.

Meanwhile, if prices rise for some reason, they could drag cryptos back to their late February lows.