Ethereum Prices Forecast: ETH Faces Sub-$1,800 on SEC and Fed Double Whammy

Key Insights:

• ETH joined the broader market in the red on Tuesday, falling 0.98% to end the day at $1,827.
• July retail figures reignite fears of a potential September Fed rate hike.
• SEC and Fed decisions overshadow bullish signs in ETH staking statistics.

Ethereum (ETH) fell by 0.98% on Tuesday. Reversing a 0.27% gain from Monday, ETH wrapped up the day at $1,827. ETH ended the day at sub-$1,850 for the fifth consecutive session.

Ethereum Price Action

This morning, ETH was down 0.27% to $1,823. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,830 before falling to a low of $1,819.

Daily Chart

The Daily Chart showed ETH hovering above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. ETH sat below the 50-day EMA while holding above the 200-day, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

Looking at the 14-Daily RSI, the 40.54 reading reflects bearish sentiment, supporting a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band to target the 200-day EMA. However, an ETH move through the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band.

4-Hourly Chart

Looking at the 4-Hourly Chart, the ETH/USD faces strong resistance at $1,850. ETH sits above the $1,815 – $1,795 support band. However, ETH remains below 50-day and 200-day EMAs, sending bearish near and longer-term price signals.

An ETH move through the EMAs would give the bulls a run at the $1,865 – $1,895 resistance band. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA would leave the $1,815 – $1,795 support band in play.

The 14-4H RSI reading of 32.76 reflects bearish sentiment, with selling pressure outweighing buying pressure. Significantly, the RSI aligns with the 50-day EMA, signaling a fall through the $1,815 – $1,795 support band.

Fed Fear Sends ETH into Negative Territory

On Tuesday, US retail sales figures impacted market sentiment across the riskier asset spectrum. US retail sales figures signaled a hot US economy. In July, US retail sales increased by 0.7% versus +0.3% in June, with core retail sales up 1.0% in July versus +0.2% in June. Economists forecast retail sales to climb by 0.4% and core retail sales to fall by 0.3%.

The retail sales numbers for July reignited fears of a September Fed rate hike. According to GDPNow, the GDP estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the US economy is forecast to grow by 5.0% in Q3, up from 4.1% one week earlier.

The US equity markets also responded to the unexpected rise in consumer spending. The S&P 500 fell by 1.16% on Tuesday. It was also a bearish session for the Dow and the NASDAQ Composite, which saw losses of 1.02% and 1.14%, respectively.

Staking Statistics Continue to Reflect SEC-Fueled Uncertainty

Staking statistics and SEC-fueled uncertainty about the spot BTC ETFs and the motion to appeal the SEC v Ripple Court remained headwinds.

Former SEC Official John Reed Stark thinks the SEC will decline the current batch of spot BTC ETF applications. Investors expect spot ETH ETF applications to follow the approval of one, some, or all of the spot BTC ETFs.

The Wednesday Session

ETF and SEC activity will continue to draw interest after SEC Chair Gary Gensler included ETH in the SEC Securities Basket.

However, the FOMC meeting minutes will likely trump the crypto news following the market reaction to the US retail sales report.

Staking Statistics Send Bearish Price Signals

According to CryptoQuant, staking inflows increased from 27,904 ETH on Monday to 53,920 on Tuesday. However, inflows remained below the 100,000 threshold. A move through the 100,000 threshold would signal a shift in market sentiment.

The overnight withdrawal profile was bearish, with ETH principal withdrawals spiking before returning to normal levels. Notably, withdrawal projections for the morning session turned bullish. Projections show ETH withdrawals will remain at normal withdrawal levels.

On Tuesday, the net ETH staking balance stood at a 25,470 ETH surplus ($47.07 million), up 34% over 24 hours. Deposits totaled 28,560 versus withdrawals of 3,090 ETH.

According to TokenUnlocks, total pending withdrawals stood at 39,490 ETH, equivalent to approximately $72.03 million. Notably, the staking APR stood at 4.90%, unchanged over 24 hours. While the downward trend in staking APR remains bearish, the rise in the net staking balance and the fall in pending withdrawals are bullish price signals.

However, investors will likely brush aside the staking statistics today, with the SEC and the Fed in focus.