Ethereum’s Intermediate-Term Elliot Wave Count Turning Bullish?

The Weekly Chart Starts to Look Bullish, But…

Last week, see here, I shared with you that per the short-term, detailed Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) count, I expected another move higher for Ethereum (ETH) to ideally around $2100+/100. This move happened, and ETH reached as high as $2013. So far, so good. It is time to zoom out to review the bigger picture. See Figure 1 below.

Ethereum bottomed on June 18 at $880, only $11 away from the ideal c=a target of $869. Since that low, as I showed in my previous updates, ETH is most likely “impulsing” higher, which means the trend has changed from down to up. But I want to see this trend change, i.e. five waves higher, preferably on the weekly time frame. That will add weight to the evidence that a new Bullish cycle has started.

Figure 1. Ethereum weekly chart with detailed EWP count and technical indicators.

Resistance is at Around $2300+/-100

Since the June 18 low, I can count down, i.e., red weeks, as corrective (2^nd and 4^th waves) just like I did for the rally leading up to the all-time high (ATH) in November last year. Since no method is perfect, this works 9 out of 10, which is an excellent track record.

Thus, ETH has completed (red) intermediate waves i, ii, and iii so far. This week can be wave-iv; we then need a wave-v to complete (black) major wave-1. That should ideally target the resistance zone at around $2300+/-100, which was earlier this year’s support zone. Completion of five waves up then tells us to anticipate a three-wave correction (black, major wave-2), followed by wave-3. See Figure 2 above.

Standard Fibonacci-based extensions and retraces suggest this 3^rd wave should target ~$3700. However, cryptocurrencies tend to extend, and ~$6500 seems more likely. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves and take it step-by-step as the Bulls still need to prove their case: completion of waves iii, iv, and v. Then a pullback for wave 2 followed by a breakout above wave 1. That will be the “go-go-go” signal.

Conversely, a weekly close back below the 200-week Simple Moving Average (now at $1253 and rising around $10/week) will be bearish. Thus, although the detailed EWP count already looks Bullish, I would like the weekly chart to align, and once again, the EWP provides precise if/then scenarios to know what will be next.