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EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Trades Back Below 1.1300 After Failed Bullish Break

By:
Jignesh Davda
Published: Jul 10, 2020, 09:59 UTC

EUR/USD briefly traded at a fresh 4-week high yesterday before sellers stepped in to hold the currency pair within its broader range.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is set to post a third straight week of gains although the currency pair has only gained about 1% during that time. Volatility has slowed notably since early June and a range has been playing out since.

The pair has had an increasingly stronger relationship with the equity markets while this range has been playing out. This has led to some choppy trading this week as US equity indices such as the S&P 500 have mostly traded sideways.

In addition to a lack of a directional movement in the equity markets, the economic calendar has been light this week which has further removed the potential for a meaningful move in EUR/USD.

With risk sentiment as a predominant driver, investors will be keeping a close eye on Coronavirus developments with US cases continuing to rise. Reports showed a record rise of more than 60,000 new cases on Thursday across the US which was larger than any other country has seen in a single day.

The weekly jobless claims report from the US, reported yesterday, came in ahead of expectations with 1.31 million people filing for benefits for the first time versus an analyst estimate of 1.38 million people.

Later during the North American session, the US will release its latest producer price index figures.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD Daily Chart

A few traders may have gotten caught on the wrong side of the trade yesterday as EUR/USD briefly pierced to multi-week highs only to reverse lower to erase gains from the prior day.

The range in the pair remains intact, and despite the recent upward momentum, sellers are likely to dominate as the exchange rate is near the upper bound of the range.

Strong resistance for the pair is seen at 1.1340 in the session ahead, while range support is found at 1.1212.

Bottom Line

  • EUR/USD continues to hold within a range. A bullish breakout attempt yesterday was not sustained and sellers may defend resistance at 1.1340 in the session ahead.
  • The economic calendar has been light all week. Today’s PPI figures from the US are not likely to have a material impact on the exchange rate.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Jignesh has 8 years of expirience in the markets, he provides his analysis as well as trade suggestions to money managers and often consults banks and veteran traders on his view of the market.

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