EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Forecasts – US Dollar Shrinks on Monday

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Ultimately, it’s not until we break above the 1.1850 level that I think anything has changed. So, despite the fact that the US Dollar is on its back foot, it is a very currency-specific. We already know that the ECB is where they need to be, so it’s a flat central bank. The question now is whether or not the Federal Reserve will feel the need to cut rates aggressively enough for the market.

We also have geopolitical concerns. Part of this might have something to do with the spat between the United States and the European Union. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out, but truthfully, the more crises we have, the more likely this is to turn around.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro had rallied against the US Dollar, but the British Pound has given back most of the gains already. So, with that being the case, I think you have to look at this as a situation where the 1.35 level continues to be a major barrier that just can’t be broken. If we do break above there, it’s really not until we break above 1.3550 that you start to talk about a move to the upside. This to me looks like a drop, a bounce, and perhaps a rollover. We’ll just have to wait and see. We did get claimant count change numbers earlier in the session, but it was slightly more negative, not really enough to affect the currency market, though in my estimation, directly.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

You can see what the strength of the Euro has done to the Euro against the British Pound. I still think this is a market that rolls over, but now we have to reset, and we’ll have to keep an eye on that 0.8750 level because this is an area that’s been important multiple times. If we do start to see the Euro roll over against the dollar, we’ll have to wait, but I think that probably will have an influence here as well.

So, with all of that being said, I like fading signs of exhaustion. We could send this market down to the 200-day EMA again, but if we clear 0.8750, I probably step back from this pair for a while.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.