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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Forecast: DXY at $105.130; Bearish Correction Ahead?

By:
Arslan Ali
Published: May 30, 2024, 08:02 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • German GfK Consumer Climate index improved slightly to -20.9 from -22.5, signaling better consumer sentiment.
  • US preliminary GDP growth for Q1 is expected to slow to 1.2% from 1.6%, impacting USD movement.
  • Spanish Flash CPI y/y is forecasted to decrease to 3.6% from 3.7%, with potential market implications.
Dollar

In this article:

Market Overview

On May 29, the German GfK Consumer Climate index improved slightly to -20.9 from -22.5, but the German Preliminary CPI m/m fell to 0.1% from 0.2%, indicating weaker inflationary pressures. M3 Money Supply and Private Loans y/y remained stable at 1.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

In the US, the Richmond Manufacturing Index rose to 0 from -6, suggesting some improvement in manufacturing activity. Federal Reserve officials, including FOMC Member Williams, spoke later in the day, emphasizing cautious optimism. The Beige Book report highlighted modest price increases and expanding economic activity, influencing the DXY.

Events Ahead

Looking forward to May 30, the Spanish Flash CPI y/y is forecasted to decrease slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%, while the Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 7.3% from 7.2%. The Eurozone Unemployment Rate is projected to remain stable at 6.5%.

In the US, preliminary GDP growth for Q1 is expected to slow to 1.2% from 1.6%, and unemployment claims are forecasted to increase slightly to 218K. The Prelim GDP Price Index is expected to hold steady at 3.1%, and the Goods Trade Balance is projected to remain nearly unchanged at -$91.9 billion.

Additionally, pending home sales are expected to decline by 1.1%, and Crude Oil Inventories are forecasted to decrease by 1.6 million barrels.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar - Chart
Dollar – Chart

The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $105.132, down 0.01%. The pivot point at $105.185 is crucial for determining market direction. Immediate resistance levels are at $105.458, $105.649, and $105.892. On the downside, support levels are at $104.892, $104.710, and $104.446.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $104.788, while the 200-day EMA is at $104.961. These technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook below the pivot point.

The outlook remains bearish below $105.185, but a break above this level could shift the bias towards a bullish trend.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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