EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Watching PMI, FOMC for Market Cues

Arslan Ali
Published: Apr 1, 2024, 07:58 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

  • France's stagnant consumer spending and subdued inflation highlight cautious Eurozone sentiment.
  • Italian inflation remains stable at 0.1%, mirroring previous figures and meeting expectations.
  • Eurozone economic indicators depict a mixed outlook, with France's spending dip and Italy's steady inflation.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Watching PMI, FOMC for Market Cues

In this article:

Market Overview

In the recent economic updates, France and Italy showed varied inflation and consumer spending trends. French Consumer Spending remained flat (0.0%), falling short of the 0.3% expectation and marking a decrease from the previous -0.6%.

In terms of inflation, French Preliminary CPI posted a 0.2% increase, below the anticipated 0.5% but showing a decrease from the prior 0.9%. Meanwhile, Italian Preliminary CPI remained steady at 0.1%, aligning with both expectations and previous readings.

These figures reflect a mixed economic outlook in the Eurozone, with subdued consumer spending in France and stable inflation rates in Italy.

Events Ahead

The forthcoming week is critical, with the U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI slated at 52.5, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI anticipated at 48.5, hinting at manufacturing sector trends. ISM Manufacturing Prices are expected at 53.3, while Construction Spending could vary, predicted at 0.7%. These figures are crucial for assessing the U.S. economic landscape, potentially impacting the dollar’s valuation.

For the GBP, the BRC Shop Price Index year-on-year change is expected at 2.2%, offering insights into UK price trends. Additionally, remarks from USD FOMC Member Cook will be scrutinized for policy direction clues.

As markets resume post-Easter Monday, these economic indicators and speeches will significantly influence the EUR/USD and GBP/USD forecasts

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index
Dollar Index

The Dollar Index (DXY) showed minimal change, trading at 104.488, a slight 0.02% decrease. Currently, it hovers above its pivot point at 104.428, suggesting a stable outlook. Resistance levels are set at 104.736, 104.978, and 105.248, indicating potential upside barriers.

Support is found at 104.215, 104.012, and 103.775, providing critical buffers against declines. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at 104.135 and 103.775, respectively, alongside an upward trendline, suggest a bullish sentiment above 104.428, with the risk of a sell-off if it dips below.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

About the Author

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.

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