EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Watching PMI, FOMC for Market Cues

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Published: Apr 1, 2024, 07:58 GMT+00:00

Key Points:

France's stagnant consumer spending and subdued inflation highlight cautious Eurozone sentiment.
Italian inflation remains stable at 0.1%, mirroring previous figures and meeting expectations.
Eurozone economic indicators depict a mixed outlook, with France's spending dip and Italy's steady inflation.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DXY Price Forecast: Watching PMI, FOMC for Market Cues

Market Overview

In the recent economic updates, France and Italy showed varied inflation and consumer spending trends. French Consumer Spending remained flat (0.0%), falling short of the 0.3% expectation and marking a decrease from the previous -0.6%.

In terms of inflation, French Preliminary CPI posted a 0.2% increase, below the anticipated 0.5% but showing a decrease from the prior 0.9%. Meanwhile, Italian Preliminary CPI remained steady at 0.1%, aligning with both expectations and previous readings.

These figures reflect a mixed economic outlook in the Eurozone, with subdued consumer spending in France and stable inflation rates in Italy.

Events Ahead

The forthcoming week is critical, with the U.S. Final Manufacturing PMI slated at 52.5, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI anticipated at 48.5, hinting at manufacturing sector trends. ISM Manufacturing Prices are expected at 53.3, while Construction Spending could vary, predicted at 0.7%. These figures are crucial for assessing the U.S. economic landscape, potentially impacting the dollar’s valuation.

For the GBP, the BRC Shop Price Index year-on-year change is expected at 2.2%, offering insights into UK price trends. Additionally, remarks from USD FOMC Member Cook will be scrutinized for policy direction clues.

As markets resume post-Easter Monday, these economic indicators and speeches will significantly influence the EUR/USD and GBP/USD forecasts

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index (DXY) showed minimal change, trading at 104.488, a slight 0.02% decrease. Currently, it hovers above its pivot point at 104.428, suggesting a stable outlook. Resistance levels are set at 104.736, 104.978, and 105.248, indicating potential upside barriers.

Support is found at 104.215, 104.012, and 103.775, providing critical buffers against declines. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs at 104.135 and 103.775, respectively, alongside an upward trendline, suggest a bullish sentiment above 104.428, with the risk of a sell-off if it dips below.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The EUR/USD pair is slightly down, trading at 1.07901, marking a 0.02% decrease. The key pivot point is at 1.0801, with resistance levels at 1.0820, 1.0855, and 1.0889 hinting at potential upside movement.

Conversely, support is found at 1.0767, 1.0733, and 1.0707, offering downside protection. The 50-day EMA at 1.0827 and the 200-day EMA at 1.0849 suggest a cautious market sentiment.

Currently, EUR/USD faces a bearish outlook below 1.0801, but crossing above this threshold could shift the momentum to bullish, influenced by forthcoming economic indicators and market reactions.

GBP/USD Technical Forecast

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

The GBP/USD pair slightly increased to 1.26344, gaining 0.10%. Its pivot point is at 1.26322, setting the tone for the day’s trading. Resistance levels are at 1.26635, 1.26902, and 1.27169, indicating potential upward movements.

Support is found at 1.25766, 1.25408, and 1.25062, providing key levels for retracements. The 50-day EMA at 1.26518 and the 200-day EMA at 1.26803 suggest a near-term bullish bias, but the pair remains bearish below 1.26322.

A break above this pivot could shift the market sentiment to a more bullish outlook, influenced by upcoming economic data and market events.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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