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EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecast – U.S. Dollar Retreats As Manufacturing PMI Drops

By:
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Aug 23, 2023, 16:52 GMT+00:00

Treasury yields pulled back from recent highs as traders bet on a more dovish Fed, which was bearish for the American currency.

DXY

Key Insights

  • U.S. dollar reacts negatively to weak PMI reports.
  • Oil market rebound influences USD/CAD’s pullback from session peaks.
  • USD/JPY tracks downward, mirroring the retreat in Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar

DXY
DXY 230823 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react to the weaker-than-expected PMI reports, which indicated that the manufacturing segment remained under significant pressure.

In case U.S. Dollar Index settles back below the 103.40 level, it may gain additional downside momentum and move towards the support in the 102.00 – 102.15 range.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD
EUR/USD 230823 4h Chart

EUR/USD rebounded from session lows as Euro Area Manufacturing PMI increased from 42.7 in July to 43.7 in August. Numbers below 50 show contraction. The report exceeded analyst estimates.

If EUR/USD stays above the 1.0850 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 1.0950 – 1.0975 range.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD
GBP/USD 230823 4h Chart

GBP/USD has also rebounded from recent lows and is trying to climb back above the resistance at 1.2725 – 1.2750. UK PMI reports were also weak, but traders focused on the strong pullback in Treasury yields.

A successful test of the resistance at 1.2725 – 1.2750 will open the way to the test of the 200 MA at 1.2830.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD
USD/CAD 230823 4h Chart

USD/CAD pulled back from session highs as oil markets have started to rebound after the release of the EIA report, which indicated that crude inventories declined by 6.1 million barrels from the previous week.

In case USD/CAD declines below the 1.3500 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3430 – 1.3450 range.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 230823 4h Chart

USD/JPY continues to move lower as traders focus on the pullback in Treasury yields.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY 230823 Daily Chart

Taking a look at the daily chart, USD/JPY is trying to settle below the important support at 144.65 – 145.00. If this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will move towards the next support level at 141.85 – 142.35.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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