EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for April 11, 2018

The EUR/USD is trading higher shortly after the U.S. opening. The financial markets are a little agitated on Wednesday after President Trump told Russia to ‘get ready’ for missiles coming to Syria. Trump was responding to Russia’s vow to shoot down U.S. missiles in Syria. This news is helping to drive down demand for higher-yielding assets like stocks and the U.S. Dollar.

Traders are also buckling down on the dollar ahead of today’s U.S. consumer inflation report, due to be released at 1230 GMT. Monthly CPI is expected to come in flat at 0.0%. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. Yesterday, the U.S. producer inflation report beat expectations with a 0.3% jump.

At 1800 GMT, the Fed will release the minutes from its latest meeting. Traders expect the Fed to touch on subjects such as inflation, interest rates, stock market volatility and President Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom at 1.2214 on April 6.

A trade through 1.2476 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.2214 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The main range is 1.2555 to 1.2153. The market is currently trading inside its retracement zone at 1.2354 to 1.2401. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 1.2476 to 1.2214. Its retracement zone is 1.2345 to 1.2376. The EUR/USD is also testing this zone.

The overlapping retracement zones are creating a support cluster at 1.2354 to 1.2345. This zone provided support earlier in the session.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the current price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.2376.

A sustained move over 1.2376 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could drive the EUR/USD into the main Fibonacci level at 1.2401. This level is the trigger point for an acceleration into 1.2476 over the near-term.

A sustained move under 1.2376 will signal the return of sellers. They will be defending the downtrend. The first downside target is the pair of 50% levels at 1.2354 and 1.2345.

The trigger point for the start of a steep sell-off is 1.2345. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the downside under this level.