EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 19, 2021

The Euro is trading lower against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after giving back earlier gains. Some of the weakness is being attributed to a rebound in Treasury yields which began the session under pressure. Some is based on expectations that the U.S. economy will outperform the Euro Zone economy.

At 13:26 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1891, down 0.0027 or -0.22%. This is down from a top of 1.1937.

The dollar is being supported as investors continue to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pledge this week to look past inflation and keep interest rates low. The Fed’s loose policy stance on Wednesday triggered a dollar sell-off and pushed up 10-year Treasury yields to 14-month highs. But the greenback’s losses have since reversed, helped by a weaker Euro.

In other news, the Euro gave up early gains versus the dollar amid concerns about further coronavirus lockdowns in Europe, after France imposed a new four-week lockdown from Friday in 16 regions badly hit by the health crisis.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main tops at 1.1989 and 1.1990 will change the main trend to up.

The downtrend was reaffirmed today when sellers took out the last main bottom at 1.1882. The next target is the main bottom at 1.1836, followed by the November 23 main bottom at 1.1800.

The minor range is 1.1836 to 1.1990. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its 50% level at 1.1913.

The second 50% resistance level is 1.1974. This is followed by the main retracement zone resistance at 1.2010 to 1.2074.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1913.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1913 will indicate the presence of sellers. We could see an acceleration to the downside if momentum picks up on the trade through 1.1882. This could trigger a further break into 1.1836 and 1.1800.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1913 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into 1.1974, 1.1990 and 1.2010. The latter is a potential trigger point for and acceleration into 1.2074.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.