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Christopher Lewis

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator came out much stronger than anticipated, and this of course has sent the Euro higher as Germany is such a huge part of the European Union. Furthermore, we had already seen a bit of support from the previous session, as Monday closed with a hammer. The market looks very likely to continue to see more of a reach towards the 200 day EMA above, perhaps reaching towards the 1.1150 level even. However, we are in the midst of conflicting pressures, and then of course the moving averages will attract a certain amount of attention. The 50 day and the 200 day EMA moving averages are some of the most widely followed economic indicators.

EUR/USD Forecast Video 22.01.20

I anticipate that this pair will continue to chop back and forth in general, as it has no real clarity at the moment. That being said though, we are in a larger consolidation area between the 1.10 level on the bottom and the 1.12 level on the top. Until we break out of this 200 point range, I think that we simply go back and forth. We are hanging about the middle of it which is essentially “fair value”, considering that it’s a bit of an equilibrium for the markets. Until we get some type of significant move one way or the other, this will continue to be a short-term trading opportunity, as we go back and forth. Clarity is not something we have much of right now other than the fact that 1.11 seems to be a bit of a magnet. The closer we get to the outside of the consolidation area, the more likely I am to try to fade that move and reach back towards 1.11 handle.

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