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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back all of the gains and smashed into the 1.17 level by the time the Americans got on board. Ultimately, this is a market that will probably go much lower, and as you can see the recent rally has already given up about half of the gains. Ultimately, this is a market that looks very likely to go towards the 1.15 handle, as it was a significant resistance barrier previously, and of course the number is a big figure that will attract a lot of attention anyway, so it makes a nice target. Furthermore, when you look at the rounded top that formed previously, the measured move reaches to that same overall region.

EUR/USD Video 01.10.20

The US dollar of course will pick up steam and demand if there is more concern out there, and quite frankly it does not take a whole lot of imagination to see where that could come from. The markets are extraordinarily volatile right now and the headline certainly have been mixed at best. Beyond all of that, it looks as if we are seeing deflation in Germany, which is without a doubt one of the biggest contributors to the value of the Euro. None of this adds up for a big move higher in the Euro, so it does make sense that at the very least we need to pullback after the explosive move to the upside over the last several months. Short-term fading of rallies probably will continue to be the overall theme in this general vicinity, but that does not necessarily mean that we melt down.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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