EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softer in Early Monday Trading

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The euro has rallied a little bit during the early hours here on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to get to the 1.18 level. The 1.18 level, of course, is an area that’s been pretty significant resistance multiple times. And I do think it’s going to be interesting to see how the market behaves in that area. If we can break above there on a daily candlestick, then I think we could go looking at the 1.20 level.

Short-term pullbacks are very possible. And I think the 50-day EMA underneath offers a bit of support right along with the 1.16 level. With that Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, I think things will be a little bit choppy between now and then.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar is down ever so slightly against the Japanese yen in early trading, but we are stuck between the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA. If the market were to break to the upside, we could go looking to the 149 yen level. If we break down from here, the 146.50 yen level continues to offer support. I expect very sideways action here.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar is a little bit stronger in the early trading hours of Monday. We are approaching a significant swing high near the 0.67 level, so we may hesitate a bit here, but clearly over the last week or so, we’ve seen the Australian dollar outperform many of its contemporaries. And therefore, I think if things play out the way they have been, we’ll continue to see the Aussie grind to the upside, breaking the 0.67 level could really free it to go much higher. We’ll just have to wait and see. However, do keep in mind that Federal Reserve cutting rates a lot of times signals the end of good times. And if that’s the case, you may suddenly see the US dollar reverse.

I’d be very careful with that. A lot of this is going to come down to the press conference and how fearful the Federal Reserve sounds. If we do pull back at this point, keep an eye on that 0.6550 level. It’s been like a magnet for price. And at this point in time, it’s basically where I think the market’s most comfortable. That could change. We certainly have made a strong push to the upside. We’ll just have to see if it holds.

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