EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Threatens Resistance

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 10.04.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The Euro has initially pulled back just a bit during the week, only to turn around and slam towards resistance. The 1.09 level begins with an area of thick resistance that seems to be difficult to break out of, extending all the way to the 1.1060 level. Just above there, the 200-Week EMA comes into play, right around the 1.11 level, so that’s another reason to think that perhaps we may have some issues going higher. At this point in time, the markets will have to wait to see what the true reaction is on Monday, once the Americans get back in full liquidity. As it is Good Friday, and of course, Monday has several major banking centers closed in Europe, it makes a lot of sense that we would see hesitation to get any momentum.

That being said, the market is at the top of the overall range, and it makes a certain amount of sense that we would see a little bit of hesitation. If we do pull back and break down below the bottom of the candlestick we just printed, then it opens up a potential move to the downside, perhaps down to the 50-Week EMA. The 50-Week EMA sits near the 1.06 level and is starting to rise. That being said, it’s also worth noting that the candlestick for the week looks a little bit like a shooting star, but that’s probably a stretch to suggest that it is. However, it is a market that continues to look at the Federal Reserve for some type of guidance, because quite frankly traders believe that there are reasons that the Federal Reserve may change its monetary policy soon, and if that’s going to be the case, it’s difficult to imagine a situation where the US dollar would do well. However, if inflation continues to be a major issue, then they will stay tight.

The Non-Farm Payroll announcement was in line with expectations, so it doesn’t necessarily influence where we go next. That being said if we continue to see inflationary pressures, that could send this market back around, and send this market lower. On the other hand, if inflation seems to be falling, that could help the Euro.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.