EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro Continues Grind Lower

The Euro has gone back and forth during the course of the week, using the 200 week EMA as a bit of resistance. The 1.15 level underneath could offer a little bit of support, but if that level gets broken down through, it is likely that the market could go to the 1.1250 level rather quickly. At this juncture, when I look at the short term charts, it is very likely that sellers will continue to come back into this market. In fact, on the daily chart you can see that the 1.1650 level offers significant selling pressure overall.

EUR/USD Video 11.10.21

Keep in mind that the ECB has a much larger balance sheet than the Federal Reserve, and it seems as if we are going to continue to see that divergence. If that is going to be the case, it should in fact continue to offer the market a reason to go lower. In fact, it is not until we break out above the top of the impulsive candlestick from last week that I would be willing to buy this market, somewhere near the 1.1750 level. Even then, I would be a bit cautious about getting overly excited.

The market will continue to be very noisy in general, but I do think that we will eventually get some type of impulsive candlestick which we can follow. To be honest, much more comfortable shorting this market that I am buying it, but I will have to follow and do what the market tells me to do once we get a large candlestick.

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