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Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD weekly chart, July 15, 2019

The Euro went back and forth during the course of the week, forming a relatively neutral candle stick. However, what you don’t see here is wet has shown up on the daily chart: a couple of shooting stars. Ultimately, this is a market that is trying to find its way going forward, and I think the one thing you can count on is going to be a lot of choppiness. The market is dealing with the idea of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, and therefore there will probably be a repricing of the US dollar.

EUR USD Forecast Video 15.07.19

The Euro is dealing with the idea of the ECB loosening monetary policy, so I think at this point it’s going to be a lot of a push/pull situation, as we try to figure out where we are going to go longer-term. The question is whether or not we are forming some type of basing pattern, or are we simply grinding sideways for the summer? The reality is we could be seeing both happen at the same time. The 50 day EMA above will offer a significant amount of resistance near the 1.1350 level. To the downside, the 1.11 level of course offers a lot of support and therefore I think we are going to ping back and forth in the near term. Having said that, I think that it is only a matter of time before we have to make a larger move. At this point, market participants have a lot of work to do, but eventually will get clarity and I believe that we will eventually change the trend to the upside. However, this is going to be a huge mass.

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