EUR/CHF Forecast Dec. 29, 2011, Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/CHF moved in a tight range again on Wednesday yet with a downside bias as the weak Swiss data pressured the franc as the outlook for the nation remains uncertain and clearly downside risks are seen.

The KOF Swiss leading indicator slumped in December more than expected to 0.01 from a revised 0.34 and missed expectations for 0.23 which assures the downside pressure on the economy. The indicator is a gauge for the economic outlook for the coming three to six months and seemingly pessimism is growing with the debt crisis and slowing global growth alongside rising deflation threats.

The euro also found little support in thin trading after Italy’s borrowing costs dropped dramatically from the previous auction. The nation sold 9.0 billion euros of six-month bonds with an average yield of 3.251% from the November 25 auction at 6.504%. Demand also outbid supply as the bid-to-cover ratio was also higher at 1.69 times compared to 1.4 times the previous auction.

On Thursday Italy will sell more bonds and after the auction on Wednesday did not change the tight range trading we expect the same for Thursday.

Germany is set to release the preliminary CPI estimate for December where the index is expected with 0.8% rise on the month from a flat previous and 2.2% on the year from 2.4%. In EU Harmonized terms it’s expected to rise also by 0.8% from a flat previous and on the year to ease to 2.4% from 2.8%.

The euro area will release the M3 Money Supply for November at 09:00 GMT which is expected to hold at 2.8% in the three months to November and on the year to fall slightly to 2.5% from 2.6%.