EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 11, 2015, 11:44 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP added 4 points as the Eurozone and Greece sealed a deal putting the possibility of a Greek exit to bed finally.

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 4 points as the Eurozone and Greece sealed a deal putting the possibility of a Greek exit to bed finally. The pound dipped a bit today after a stronger than expected retail sales report. British retail spending grew at a slower annual rate in July after recording some of the fastest growth in two years the month before, as wet weather caused Britons to put barbecue plans on hold.

Consumer spending has been the main driver of Britain’s economic recovery, but last week the Bank of England said business investment was playing an increased role. Overseas demand for British exports remains weak, causing some economists to worry whether growth is sustainable.

Official retail sales data for the three months to June released last month showed the weakest annual spending growth in more than two years. The Office for National Statistics collects data from a wider range of retailers than the BRC, whose members are mostly larger retailers.

German economic sentiment fell to a nine-month low in August, data released on Tuesday showed, and worse than the market expected.

A report from the ZEW Centre for Economic Research showed its economic confidence index fell 4.7 points to 25.0 in August, dragged lower by concerns over the state of the global economy.

The figure marked the fifth consecutive decline and fell short of analysts’ expectations of a 2.3 points increase.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
CNY	New Loans	1,480.0B	725.0B	1,280.0B
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	65.7	64.3	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	25.0	32.0	29.7
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	47.6	43.9	42.7

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B