EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – December 1, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is more or less flat at 0.7044 as German data disappointed markets today with retail sales plummeting. There is little on the UK calendar until tomorrow’s manufacturing PMI and a speech from Bank of England Carney.  The pound will strengthen against the euro into the end of the year, said Josh O’Byrne, a London-based currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. The “raised stakes” on ECB easing mean there’s potential for policy makers to over-deliver, and so he favors bets the euro will fall. Britain’s gross domestic product expanded 0.5 percent in the three months through September, matching the initial reading from the Office for National Statistics. Data next week will show services activity expanded at almost the same pace in November from the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“We are probably with the consensus, the Fed is going to tighten, the ECB is going to ease, so the euro will go lower to about 1.05 and then that will be your lot (for the year),” said Sanjiv Shah, chief investment officer with Sun Global in London.

“Everybody knows that the ECB is going to do something and the Fed as well. If it was going to go to $1 it would have gone already. Probably in the first quarter of next year we will see an attempt on parity.”

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus