EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP added 16pts today to trade at 0.8066 with the euro gaining against all the crosses on positive data and the

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 12, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 16pts today to trade at 0.8066 with the euro gaining against all the crosses on positive data and the weakened US dollar. The ZEW survey of sentiment in the euro’s zone largest economy rose sharply in December to enter positive territory for the first time since May.

That pushed the euro up 0.2 percent against the pound to a session high of 80.70 pence. It recovered from a near three-week low of 80.35 pence hit on Monday after investors were unsettled by Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti’s surprise decision to resign early.

Sterling was steady against the dollar at $1.6078, with technical charts showing support around the 55- and 50-day moving averages at $1.6036 and $1.6023 respectively.

Strategists said the pound looked vulnerable to selling on concerns about weakness in the UK economy.

Concerns about political uncertainty in Italy were expected to limit both sterling and euro gains against the highly liquid dollar, which is considered a safe haven currency by investors and tends to rally in times of market tension. The pound could also come under pressure when the officials from the UK’s Office of Budgetary Responsibility give evidence to a parliamentary committee on the government’s mid-year budget statement later in the session.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 11	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-9%	-7%	-7%
	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-1
	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	INR	Indian Trade Balance	-19.3B	-19.1B	20.9B
	ZAR	South African Retail Sales (YoY)	1.00%	4.00%	4.70%
	HUF	Hungarian CPI (YoY)	5.2%	5.4%	6.0%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	6.9	-12.0	-15.7
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	7.6	0.1	-2.6
	CAD	Trade Balance	-0.2B	-1.0B	-1.0B
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 12	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.9%	1.8%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change	7.0K	10.1K
	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-2.5%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-147.5B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	08:15	CHF	PPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.1%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-16	-21
Dec. 14	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	45.0	44.5
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.2	46.8
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%