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Barry Norman
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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 17, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP remained rangebound moving up and down on international whims. The pair is trading at 0.8112. Sterling traded near a nine-day low against the euro on after Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on UK government debt to negative. The downgrade late on Thursday puts S&P’s outlook on the UK in line with other ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s. S&P said it sees a one-in-three chance that Britain will lose its prized triple-A credit rating in the next two years.

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Sterling’s losses against the euro were likely to be temporary since a credit rating downgrade was not imminent. But the move puts more focus on Britain’s poor growth outlook.

The cut is not structurally positive, but the reaction hasn’t been huge. The euro had hit its highest level since late October before the latest bout of political turbulence in Italy unsettled investors’ confidence in the euro zone’s progress on its debt troubles at the start of this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 14

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

50.90

 

 

 

50.50 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.6

 

45.0 

 

44.5 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

47.2 

 

46.8 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.3

 

46.6 

 

46.2 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.5% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

0.00% 

 

0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.9% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Dec. 17 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-0.5 

-5.2 

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

3.3B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 17 10:10 Norway 

Dec 17 18:00 US 

Dec 18 01:30 Japan 

Dec 18 09:30 Spain 

Dec 18 10:10 Greece 

Dec 18 18:00 US 

Dec 19 18:00 US 

Dec 20 10:30 UK 

Dec 20 16:30 Italy  

Dec 20 18:00 US 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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