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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis December 24, 2012 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8138 flat in today’s session. Today’s session was a balance between negative UK data and
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8138 flat in today’s session. Today’s session was a balance between negative UK data and disappointing German data offset by risk aversion movement. German Consumer Climate data showed a disappointing print at 5.6 with expectations at 5.9.
UK GDP Q/Q printed below forecast which was offset by a strong current account number. Retail sales, including fuel, in November remained unchanged, following a 0.7 percent contraction in October and lower than the 0.3 percent increase previously forecast. The annualized figure showed a 0.9 percent rise, again coming in lower than the 1.5 percent gain expected, according to the Office for National Statistics.
Department store sales fell by 1.5 percent, the largest decline since February 2011 indicating poor consumer spending in the lead up to Christmas. Internet shopping saw an increase and now accounts for 10.8 percent of all retail sales.
Household goods sales saw a 3.8 percent advance in November from the previous month while food sales fell 0.1 percent during the same period.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data December 21, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Dec. 21 |
|
JPY |
|
|
BoJ Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
GfK German Consumer Climate |
5.6 |
|
5.9 |
|
5.8 |
||
|
|
|
HUF |
|
|
Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) |
-3.70% |
|
-2.60% |
|
-3.10% |
|
|
|
|
|
PLN |
|
|
Polish Unemployment Rate |
12.90% |
|
12.80% |
|
12.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Business Investment (QoQ) |
3.8% |
|
3.5% |
|
3.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Current Account |
-12.8B |
|
-14.0B |
|
-17.4B |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
0.9% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
GDP (YoY) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
BRL |
|
|
Brazilian Unemployment Rate |
4.9% |
|
5.1% |
|
5.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core Durable Goods Orders |
1.6% |
|
-0.2% |
|
1.9% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.2% |
|
1.1% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
GDP (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.1% |
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
0.8% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.2% |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP CAD and USD
There are no eco events on the calendar for Monday, December 24 and markets will be closed on Tuesday December 25th. Traders and politicians are expected to be out of their offices for the season with low volume and low volatility. The only global issue is the US fiscal deadline. I would like to wish all of my readers a safe and healthy holiday season and all the best in the new year.
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 21 16:30 Italy
Dec 26 01:30 Japan
Dec 27 10:10 Italy
Dec 28 10:10 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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