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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis February 21, 2013 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP climbed 53 pips with the euro winning the race. Both currencies traded lower but the heaviest weight was on the
The EUR/GBP climbed 53 pips with the euro winning the race. Both currencies traded lower but the heaviest weight was on the GBP which took a major fall, whereas the euro retreated to its prior range after climbing yesterday. The euro was able to gain momentum here. The pound has fallen to a 15-month low against the euro, with an exchange rate of just €1.14. It is faring little better against the US dollar, with the exchange rate falling to an eight-month low of $1.53. This equates to a drop of 7 per cent and 5 per cent respectively since the start of 2013.
Sterling stole the limelight in the European session, tumbling to its lowest in more than 8 months against the dollar and a 16-month trough versus the euro after minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting showed policymakers were willing to ease policy further.
Investors will now turn to the release of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting. Any hint the Fed is getting closer to paring back its asset purchase scheme could help lift the dollar broadly.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data February 20, 2013 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Feb. 20 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.68T |
|
-0.59T |
|
-0.78T |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Wage Price Index |
0.8% |
|
0.8% |
|
0.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index |
1.4% |
|
1.4% |
|
1.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Dif. |
-12.5K |
|
-5.0K |
|
-15.8K |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
MPC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Building Permits |
0.925M |
|
0.915M |
|
0.909M |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Housing Starts |
0.890M |
|
0.925M |
|
0.954M |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.4% |
|
1.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
|
1.6% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Minutes |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Feb. 21 |
07:58 |
EUR |
43.8 |
42.9 |
|
|
|
08:28 |
EUR |
50.5 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
48.4 |
47.9 |
|
|
|
09:45 |
EUR |
|
5.290% |
|
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
-15 |
-20 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
355K |
341K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
3170K |
3114K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
4.90M |
4.94M |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
1.0 |
-5.8 |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 21 01:30 Japan
Feb 21 09:30 Spain
Feb 21 09:50 France
Feb 21 10:30 UK
Feb 21 10:50 France
Feb 21 16:30 Italy
Feb 21 16:00 US
Feb 21 18:00 US
Feb 22 16:30 Italy
Feb 25 10:10 Italy
Feb 25 10:30 Germany
Feb 25 11:30 Belgium
Feb 25 18:00 US
Feb 26 10:10 Italy
Feb 26 15:30 UK
Feb 26 18:00 US
Feb 27 10:10 Italy
Feb 27 15:30 Sweden
Feb 27 18:00 US
Feb 28 01:30 Japan
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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