EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis March 13, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The pair EUR/GBP  is trading up at 0.8409 as the euro has mounted strength throughout the day. The pair opened the day’s trading at 0.8366 and climbed as high as .8417. The euro has been able to pick up strength against its trading partners after absorbing the ruling on credit swaps and the downgrade of Greek bonds.

Greek bonds issued after the country’s massive bond-swap deal last week start trading with their yields the highest in the euro zone

There has been little economic or political news to move the pound. The greenback had been trading stronger until investors seemed to ready their position ahead of the FOMC comments.

There has not been much in the way of news from the eurozone today.

Eurozone ministers, in a conference call on Friday, already approved releasing part of the €130 billion that is helping finance the debt swap. A final meeting has been set in Brussels to give their final approval to the second Greek bailout and to discuss tightening measures to prevent a repetition of the crisis. The ministers are expected to sign off on the €130 billion ($A162.56 billion) rescue program after Greece’s private creditors approved wiping off some €100 billion from Athens’ debt.

Spanish officials are expected on Monday to seek support of their European counterparts for the country’s recent announcement that the 2012 budget deficit would reach 5.8%, overshooting an EU target of 4.4%, media reports said.

Italy’s gross domestic product declined by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to the three months in the prior quarter, Italy’s statistical office, ISTAT, said on Monday. Compared to the year-ago quarter, GDP fell 0.4%. Italy is now in a “technical” recession.

The most important data was the disappointing news on the Chinese trade balance.

China’s consumer price index rose at a weaker-than-expected rate of 3.2% in February from the same month a year earlier. The producer price index for February came in at 0%, also weaker than expected and slowing from January’s 0.7% year-on-year increase. Also China’s industrial production and retail sales growth weakened in the first two months of 2012 from the year-earlier period, an official data release showed Friday. Industrial production for the January to February period climbed 11.4%, falling short of a 12.4% increase anticipated.

This data culminated over the weekend when China posted a trade deficit of $31.48 billion in February after reporting a $27.28 billion surplus in January, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Saturday.

China’s central bank governor says the yuan is approaching fair value against foreign currencies, while also pointing out it is too early to tell if the nation’s trade deficit in February is the start of a important trend.

 

March 12, 2012 Economic Releases actual v. forecast

 

Scheduled Economic Events for March 13, 2012

Europe

01:01   GBP    RICS House Price Balance                 -14%                -16%   

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance measures the percentage of surveyors reporting a house price increase in their designated area. A level above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices; below indicates more reported a fall. The report is a leading indicator of house price inflation as surveyors have access to the latest price data.   

 09:15  CHF    PPI (MoM)                                          0.3%                0.0%

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation                   

10:30   GBP    Trade Balance                                   -7.8B                 -7.1B    

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.   

 11:00 EUR     German ZEW Economic Sentiment    10.5                5.4

 11:00  EUR    ZEW Economic Sentiment                   3.8                  -8.1       

The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health. The reading is compiled from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts.

 13:30  EUR     ECB President Draghi Speaks

Mario Draghi (born 3 September1947) is an Italian banker and economist who has been governor of the Bank of Italy and succeeded Jean Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank starting November 2011. As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the EUR value than any other person. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.                            

Government Bond Auction Schedule     (this week)

Mar 13  09:30  Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13  10:10  Italy   BOT auction

Mar 13  10:30  Belgium  Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13  15:30  UK  Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13  18:00  US  Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14  10:10  Sweden  Auctions T-bills

Mar 14  10:30  Swiss  Bond auction

Mar 14  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14  18:00  US  Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15  09:30  Spain  Obligacion auction

Mar 15  09:50  France  BTAN auction

Mar 15  10.30  UK  Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15  10:50  France  OATi auction

Mar 15  16:00  US  Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22