EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis – November 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 4 point as both currencies saw gains in the session but the pound was weak on disappointing retail sales. The pair is holding at 0.7003 and could fall below the 70 mark easily today. The pound weakened against the euro and pared a gain versus the dollar after a report showed U.K. retail sales fell more than economists predicted in October.

Sterling retreated from Wednesday’s three-month high versus the shared currency and dropped against 14 of its 16 most-traded peers after the Office for National Statistics said sales including auto fuel declined 0.6 percent from September. That’s more than the 0.5 percent drop forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

“The central bank in Europe has given a very clear sign that they want to have a weaker euro,” Hans Redeker, Morgan Stanley’s London-based head of global currency strategy, said in an interview in Singapore. “I think that we are going to test parity.”

Sterling retreated from Wednesday’s three-month high versus the shared currency after the Office for National Statistics said sales including auto fuel declined 0.6% from September. That was more than the 0.5% drop forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 20, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus