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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 2, 2014 Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is down 10 points as both currencies weakened on lackluster data. Both eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI missed
The EUR/GBP is down 10 points as both currencies weakened on lackluster data. Both eurozone and UK manufacturing PMI missed expectations. The pair is trading at 0.7780 near its lowest this year. Traders are closely monitoring comments from the ECB and possible stimulus programs to be launched on Thursday. The euro languished at two-year lows on Wednesday, as economic data highlighted the growth challenges the European Central Bank likely will address at its meeting tomorrow.
German’s manufacturing sector stagnated in September, with data firm Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index falling to 49.9, the first reading below the 50 level since June 2013. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Meanwhile, the eurozone manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.3 compared with a previous estimate of 50.5, Markit said. The French manufacturing sector contracted last month, but the deterioration was at its slowest pace in four months.
The strong upsurge in U.K. manufacturing sector at the start of the year appears to have run its course.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
|
AUD |
AIG Manufacturing Index |
46.5 |
|
47.3 |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
Tankan Large Mfg |
13 |
10 |
12 |
|
|
|
|
JPY |
Tankan Non-Mfg |
13 |
17 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
CNY |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
51.1 |
51.0 |
51.1 |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
IDR |
Core Inflation (YoY) (Sep) |
4.04% |
4.33% |
4.47% |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
52.6 |
52.2 |
52.8 |
|
|
|
|
CHF |
SVME PMI (Sep) |
50.4 |
52.0 |
52.9 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
50.7 |
49.5 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
French Mfg. PMI |
48.8 |
48.8 |
48.8 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
German Mfg. PMI (Sep) |
49.9 |
50.3 |
50.3 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
50.3 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI (Sep) |
51.6 |
52.5 |
52.2 |
||
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm |
|
210K |
204K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing |
|
57.5 |
58.1 |
|
|
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
58.5 |
59.0 |
||
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
|
|
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
|
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales |
|
|
-5.7% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
Building Approvals |
|
1.0% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
AUD |
Trade Balance |
|
-0.700B |
1.359B |
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
|
63.5 |
64.0 |
|
|
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.05% |
0.05% |
|
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
297K |
293K |
|
|
|
|
USD |
Factory Orders (MoM) |
|
-9.3% |
10.5% |
||
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 02 08:30 Spain Auctions 1.4% Jan 2020 & 2.75% Oct 2024 Obligations
Oct 02 08:50 France Eur 7-8bn 1.75% May 2023, 1.75% Nov 2024 & 2.75% Oct 2027
Oct 02 15:00 US Announces details of 3/10Y Note & 30Y bond auctions on Oct
Oct 07 06:00 Swiss Announces details of optional bond auction on Oct 08
Oct 07 09:00 Norway Bond auction
Oct 07 09:15 Austria RAGB auction
Oct 07 9:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Gilt
Oct 07 15:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 10
Oct 07 17:00 US 3Y Note auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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