Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7912 down by 17 points as the pound gathered a bit of momentum as housing prices printed better
The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7912 down by 17 points as the pound gathered a bit of momentum as housing prices printed better than last month. Sterling inched higher against the euro and the dollar on Monday, with its near-term direction set to rest on a round of UK data releases and whether this week sees a revival of a broader dollar rally.
Gross domestic product numbers on Friday should prop up a currency plagued by increasing doubts in the solidity of Britain’s economic recovery in the face of a worsening outlook in Europe. Before then retail sales numbers, judging by other already released surveys, may support the softer outlook on growth which has led investors to push back expectations for a first rise in interest rates into the second half of next year. Sterling had its biggest loss in eight months against the euro last week on the back of that repricing of expectations on rates.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
GBP |
Rightmove House Price Index |
2.6% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Governor Kuroda |
|
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
Leading Index |
104.4 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
|
|
|
EUR |
German PPI (MoM) (Sep) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial New Orders |
1.5% |
-1.0% |
-1.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) |
0.40% |
|
-1.10% |
||
|
EUR |
Current Account (Aug) |
18.9B |
21.3B |
21.6B |
||
|
EUR |
Current Account. (Jul) |
15.1B |
18.3B |
32.8B |
||
|
EUR |
Net Investment Flow (Aug) |
-19.2B |
|
-14.2B |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Imp. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
||
|
CNY |
Fixed Asset Investment |
|
16.3% |
16.5% |
|
|
|
CNY |
GDP (QoQ) (Q3) |
|
1.8% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
CNY |
GDP (YoY) (Q3) |
|
7.2% |
7.5% |
|
|
|
CNY |
Industrial Production |
|
7.5% |
6.9% |
|
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
|
5.10M |
5.05M |
|
|
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
|
1.0% |
-1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 21 10:30 Spain 3 & 9M T-bill auction
Oct 21 11:00 Finland Maximum Eur 1bn 2.75% Jul 2028 bonds
Oct 21 11:00 Norway Nok 3bn 3% Mar 2024 bonds
Oct 21 11:00 UK GBP 3bn 2.75% Sep 2024 Gilt
Oct 21 12:30 ESM Up to Eur 1bn 6M T-bills (Apr 2015)
Oct 22 11:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund
Oct 23 11:03 Sweden Sek 1bn 0.5% Jun 2017 I/L bond
Oct 23 17:00 US Announces 2/5/7Y Note & 2Y FRN auctions on Oct 28/29/30
Oct 23 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPei/CTZ auctions on Oct 28
Oct 23 19:00 US USD 7bn 30Y TIPS auction
Oct 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BOT auction on Oct 29
Oct 27 12:30 Germany Eur 2.0bn new 12M Bubill (Oct 2015) auction
Oct 27 18:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu auctions on Oct 30
Oct 27 12:10 Italy BTPei/CTZ auctions
Oct 28 12:10 Italy BOT auction
Oct 28 19:00 US 2Y Note auction
Oct 29 12:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 29 12:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Aug 2024 Bund auction
Oct 29 17:30 US 2Y FRN auction
Oct 29 19:00 US 5Y Note auction
Oct 30 12:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auctions
Oct 30 19:00 US 7Y Note auction