EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP added 28 points to trade at 0.7920 after the pound took a major tumble on minutes from the last Bank of England

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 28 points to trade at 0.7920 after the pound took a major tumble on minutes from the last Bank of England meeting. The euro remains weak on worries about upcoming plans from the ECB after rumor hit the air about the ECB buying corporate bonds. Today, there are no data in Europe. Investors will continue to contemplate the chances for more ECB easing after yesterday’s rumors on potential ECB corporate bond buying. Today, there are no UK eco data, but markets will keep a close eye on the October BoE Minutes. The recent decline of inflation and ongoing low wage growth give the BoE room to stay longer in a wait-and-see mode. So, traders can expect the minutes to be soft. However, the BOE will probably wait for November inflation report to eventually amend their view/guidance on monetary policy going forward. The Minutes were negative for sterling.

Sounding more dovish on monetary policy than he has in recent months, the governor of the Bank of England told CNBC in a rare interview that global weakness, lower inflation and troubles in European economies would influence policy at the bank’s meeting next month.

Mark Carney didn’t signal any overt change in policy ahead of the meeting, but he was clear that the BOE would incorporate recent economic developments, which have included a downgrade to the global economy by the International Monetary Fund and recent negative growth numbers from Europe.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Sep)	6.9%	6.8%	-1.3%
JPY	Trade Balance (Sep)	-958B	-777B	-949B
AUD	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%
AUD	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%
GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes
USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.2%	0.0%
USD	CPI (MoM) (Sep)		0.1%	-0.2%
CAD	Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	-0.1%
CAD	BoC Monetary Policy
CAD	Interest Rate Decision		1.00%	1.00%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI		50.2	50.2
EUR	German Mfg PMI		49.5	49.9
EUR	German Services PMI		55.0	55.7
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.3
EUR	Services PMI (Sep)		52.0	52.4
GBP	BBA Mortgage		41.5K	41.6K
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.2%	0.2%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.4%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends		-4	-4
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		282K	264K