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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 9, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 24, 2015, 23:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP gained 6 points to trade at 0.7875 as both currencies were weak in today’s session.  Sterling fell against the

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 9, 2014 Forecast

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 9, 2014 Forecast
EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis October 9, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP gained 6 points to trade at 0.7875 as both currencies were weak in today’s session.  Sterling fell against the dollar on Wednesday, after two days of gains, on signs of easing British inflation which could allow the central bank to keep interest rates low.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee starts a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is expected to keep rates at record lows. The BoE has opted to keep policy ultra-loose, despite a sustained economic recovery, as wages are still subdued.

Today, there was more evidence of declining price pressures. Prices in British shops fell last month at a faster pace, driven down by a steep decline in prices for non-food products, the British Retail Consortium said. Retail prices in September were 1.8 percent lower than a year earlier, the BRC said.

The IMF said on Tuesday that Britain would be the fastest-growing major economy in 2014. Its forecast of 3.2 percent growth for Britain contrasted with cuts in its forecasts for the euro zone’s three biggest economies – Germany, France and Italy. The Italian economy would shrink by 0.2 percent this year, it said.

The IMF also said it sees a 30 percent chance of the euro zone slipping into deflation over the next year, and nearly a 40 percent probability the currency bloc could enter recession. The UK would leave its crisis behind, it said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current

0.13T

0.19T

0.10T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account n.s.a.

0.287T

0.198T

0.417T

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Services PMI

53.5

53.8

54.1

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Monthly Report

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price

9.6%

9.6%

9.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price

0.6%

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  CAD

 

Housing Starts

 

196.0K

192.4K

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

EURGBP(15 minutes)20141008121536

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

RICS House Price Bal.

 

38%

40%

 

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change

 

-30.0K

121.0K

 

 

  AUD

 

Full Employment

 

 

14.3K

 

 

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

6.2%

6.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance

 

18.5B

22.2B

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Monthly Report  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

294K

287K

 

 

  CAD

 

New Housing Price

 

0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi  

 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction

Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)

Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction

Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction

Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction

Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction

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