Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/GBP gained 6 points to trade at 0.7875 as both currencies were weak in today’s session. Sterling fell against the
The EUR/GBP gained 6 points to trade at 0.7875 as both currencies were weak in today’s session. Sterling fell against the dollar on Wednesday, after two days of gains, on signs of easing British inflation which could allow the central bank to keep interest rates low.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee starts a two-day meeting on Wednesday and is expected to keep rates at record lows. The BoE has opted to keep policy ultra-loose, despite a sustained economic recovery, as wages are still subdued.
Today, there was more evidence of declining price pressures. Prices in British shops fell last month at a faster pace, driven down by a steep decline in prices for non-food products, the British Retail Consortium said. Retail prices in September were 1.8 percent lower than a year earlier, the BRC said.
The IMF said on Tuesday that Britain would be the fastest-growing major economy in 2014. Its forecast of 3.2 percent growth for Britain contrasted with cuts in its forecasts for the euro zone’s three biggest economies – Germany, France and Italy. The Italian economy would shrink by 0.2 percent this year, it said.
The IMF also said it sees a 30 percent chance of the euro zone slipping into deflation over the next year, and nearly a 40 percent probability the currency bloc could enter recession. The UK would leave its crisis behind, it said.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
JPY |
Adjusted Current |
0.13T |
0.19T |
0.10T |
|
|
|
JPY |
Current Account n.s.a. |
0.287T |
0.198T |
0.417T |
|
|
|
CNY |
HSBC Services PMI |
53.5 |
53.8 |
54.1 |
|
|
|
JPY |
BoJ Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price |
9.6% |
9.6% |
9.7% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Halifax House Price |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
||
|
CAD |
Housing Starts |
|
196.0K |
192.4K |
|
|
|
USD |
FOMC Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Bal. |
|
38% |
40% |
|
|
|
AUD |
Employment Change |
|
-30.0K |
121.0K |
|
|
|
AUD |
Full Employment |
|
|
14.3K |
|
|
|
AUD |
Unemployment Rate |
|
6.2% |
6.1% |
|
|
|
EUR |
German Trade Balance |
|
18.5B |
22.2B |
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
|
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
294K |
287K |
|
|
|
CAD |
New Housing Price |
|
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
|
|
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 08 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Oct 2019 Bobl auction
Oct 08 09:30 Swiss Bond auction (for decision)
Oct 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP
Oct 08 17:00 US 10Y Note auction
Oct 09 09:03 Sweden I/L bond auction
Oct 09 17:00 US 30Y bond auction
Oct 10 09:10 Italy BOT auction