EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

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Published: Sep 12, 2016, 11:37 GMT+00:00

The EUR/GBP is more or less flat at 0.8470 as both the currencies recovered against the dollar but a lack of data and events kept the currency market

EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast – September 13, 2016

The EUR/GBP is more or less flat at 0.8470 as both the currencies recovered against the dollar but a lack of data and events kept the currency market quiets after last week’s ECB disappointment. The British Chambers of Commerce has highlighted fears over the continuing availability of EU workers, and a survey by private equity firm ECI has revealed gazelles want membership of the European single market and access to EU workers to be the Government’s top priorities in Brexit negotiations.

The head of economics at the BCC, said: ‘It is still too early to draw firm conclusions on the effects of the EU referendum on overseas trade. As the Government begins to renegotiate the UK’s global trade position, it is vital that the Autumn Statement is used to improve support for those firms looking to access new markets.’

price expectations climbed into positive territory for the first time since April, with a net balance of 10 per cent of surveyors now anticipating a rise in prices over the coming three months. The report confirmed data from the Bank of England which showed mortgage approvals dropped sharply from 64,200 loans in June to 60,900 in July following the referendum vote, but added that the picture was now stabilizing.

Consumer spending fell by 1.4 per cent month-on-month, versus a 1.1 per cent rise in July, and a 0.5 per cent drop in June – highlighting the volatile response of shoppers to the political turmoil sparked by the EU referendum.

On an annual basis, consumer spending grew at its weakest pace in nearly three years, rising a meagre 0.1 per cent. according to the research by Markit and Visa.

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September 13, 2016

CNY	FDI – Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) Y	2	4.3
AUD	RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech	2
CNY	Retail Sales Y	2	10.2	10.3
CNY	Industrial Production Y	2	6	6.1
EUR	Wholesale Price Index M	2	0.2
EUR	Wholesale Price Index Y	2	-1.4
EUR	Consumer Price Index Y	2	0.4	0.4
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices M	2	-0.1	-0.1
EUR	Index of Consumer Prices Y	2	0.3	0.3
EUR	Consumer Price Index M	2	0.1	0
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input M	2	3.3	0.5
GBP	Producer Price Index – Input Y	2	4.3	8.1
GBP	PPI Core Output Y	2	1	1.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output M	2	0.3	0.3
GBP	Producer Price Index – Output Y	2	0.3	1.1
GBP	PPI Core Output M	2	0.4	0.2
GBP	Consumer Price Index M	2	-0.1	0.4
GBP	Consumer Price Index Y	3	0.6	0.7
GBP	Core Consumer Price Index Y	3	1.3	1.4
EUR	ECB President Draghi’s Speech	3
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	3	4.6	6.7
EUR	ZEW Survey – Current Situation	2	57.6	56
EUR	ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment	2	0.5	2.5
USD	10-Year Note Auction	2	1.503
USD	Monthly Budget Statement	2	-113

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

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