EUR/GBP Fundamental – November 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP dipped 15 points as the pound held steady after inflation data met expectations while the euro continues to decline on economic worries over the closing of borders and the immigrations problems stemming for the terrorist attack. This is compounded from the promises of stimulus from the ECB. The hope for new ECB action in December and consequently a weaker euro have clearly improved investors’ optimism,” said ING economist Carsten Brzeski.

Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi underlined the bank’s readiness to extend money printing, warning that a key measure of economic health – price inflation – was flagging. ECB policymakers’ next key meeting is on Dec. 3.

“The outlook for the German economy is brightening towards the end of the year. Economic pessimism appears not to have increased after the terror attacks in Paris,” ZEW chief Clemens Fuest said in a statement.

For the second month running the UK’s headline figure for inflation – the rate of increase in prices for goods and services – is negative. In October, prices were 0.1% lower than a year ago – the first time ever that the consumer prices index (CPI) has fallen in two consecutive months.

While September’s figure is used to determine benefits rises, October’s is not so important in that respect.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 18 11:30 Germany New Eur 5bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Nov 18 11:30 UK 2% 2025 Gilt auction

Nov 18 11:30 Portugal Eur 1-1.25bn; bond auction

Nov 18 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 25 Nov

Nov 18 N/A Holland Announces details of Bond on 24 Nov

Nov 19 10:30 Spain 0.25% Apr 2018 Bono, 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono, 5.4% Jan 2023

Nov 19 10:50 France Eur 7-8bn; 4.25% Oct 2018 OAT, 0.25% Nov 2020 OAT, 2.25%

Nov 19 11:50 France Eur 1-1.5bn; 0.25% Jul 2024, 1.85% Jul 2027, 3.15% Jul 2032

Nov 19 N/A US Holds 10-year TIPS auction

Nov 20 16:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 25 Nov

Nov 23 12:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

Nov 23 N/A US Holds 2-year note auction

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 N/A Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 N/A US Holds 5-year note auction

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Nov 25 N/A US Holds 7-year note auction

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus