EUR/GBP Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015

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Published: Aug 1, 2015, 07:56 UTC

Outlook and Recommendation The EUR/GBP added 22 points to 0.7030 as the euro recovered towards the end of the month as the Greek situation mellowed this

EUR/GBP Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2015

Outlook and Recommendation

The EUR/GBP added 22 points to 0.7030 as the euro recovered towards the end of the month as the Greek situation mellowed this month. The path of the British pound (GBP) is one of relative performance, softening vs. the USD while climbing against its peers in light of the Bank of England whose normalization is expected to lag the Fed’s in both timing and scope. Risk for the EUR remains biased to further weakness as we look to greater divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank, with the passing of Greece-driven uncertainty providing for a renewed focus on fundamentals.

Monetary policy divergence and growth differentials will continue to place a depreciating bias on the EUR. The GBP will likely strengthen against its non-US peers as the Bank of England leads monetary normalization in Europe.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events In August That You Should Be Monitoring:

Time	Cur.		Event	Forecast	Previous
Saturday, August 1, 2015
05:00	CNY		Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	50.2	50.2
Monday, August 3, 2015
05:45	CNY		HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jul)		48.2
11:55	EUR		German Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.5	51.5
12:30	GBP		Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	51.6	51.4
18:00	USD		ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	53.5	53.5
Tuesday, August 4, 2015
05:30	AUD		Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.5%	0.3%
08:30	AUD		Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	2.00%	2.00%
12:30	GBP		Construction PMI (Jul)	58.4	58.1
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
02:45	NZD		Employment Change (QoQ) (Q2)	0.5%	0.7%
12:30	GBP		Services PMI (Jul)	58.0	58.5
16:15	USD		ADP Nonfarm Employment	215K	237K
18:00	USD		ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI	56.2	56.0
Thursday, August 6, 2015
05:30	AUD		Employment Change (Jul)	15.0K	7.3K
12:30	GBP		Manufacturing Production	0.2%	-0.6%
15:00	GBP		Interest Rate Decision (Aug)	0.50%	0.50%
Friday, August 7, 2015
16:30	USD		Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)	222K	223K
18:00	CAD		Ivey PMI (Jul)	53.0	55.9
Saturday, August 8, 2015
06:00	CNY		Trade Balance (Jul)		46.54B
Sunday, August 9, 2015
06:00	CNY		CPI (YoY) (Jul)		1.4%
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
13:00	EUR		German ZEW Economic		29.7
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
09:30	CNY		Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.8%
12:30	GBP		Average Earnings Index +Bonus		3.2%
12:30	GBP		Claimant Count Change (Jul)		7.0K
Thursday, August 13, 2015
16:30	USD		Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	-0.1%
Friday, August 14, 2015
10:00	EUR		German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)		0.3%
13:00	EUR		CPI (YoY) (Jul)		0.2%
16:30	USD		PPI (MoM) (Jul)	0.2%	0.4%
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
12:30	GBP		CPI (YoY) (Jul)
Thursday, August 20, 2015
12:30	GBP		Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)		-0.2%
Friday, August 21, 2015
16:30	CAD		Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)
16:30	CAD		Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)		0.9%
Monday, August 31, 2015
		Holiday	United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday