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EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 13-17, 2014 Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 00:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP is down 24 points trading at 0.7855 as both currencies weakened on lackluster data and IMF warnings as

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, October 13-17, 2014 Forecast
EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, 2014, Forecast
EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, 2014, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is down 24 points trading at 0.7855 as both currencies weakened on lackluster data and IMF warnings as attention turned to the eurozone possible recession.  Goods exports fell by £0.7bn to £23.2bn in August, the ONS said, although most of that was attributed to a fall in oil exports, particularly to countries outside of the EU.

Imports fell more, by £2bn, narrowing the goods trade deficit to £9.1bn. In contrast, the UK continues to run a surplus in its trade in services, selling more abroad than it buys in. Analysts said the narrowing of the trade deficit did not detract from concerns over the health of the eurozone, and the impact that is having on UK exports.

The euro moved higher Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the risks to the eurozone’s economic outlook remain on the downside. Speaking at an event in Washington, D.C., the ECB head stated that a European recovery is expected to resume. He also shared his view that inflation is expected to remain low in the coming months before ticking up in 2015 and 2016.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011

Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

EURGBP(60 minutes)20141011102142

Upcoming Major Economic Events for the week of Oct 13-17, 2014

Time

Cur.

Imp.

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, October 13

 

 

Holiday

Japan – Health-Sports Day

 

 

Holiday

Canada – Thanksgiving Day

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Sep)

 

41.00B

49.83B

 

Tuesday, October 14

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.4%

1.5%

 

Wednesday, October 15

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Aug)

 

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (Sep)

 

-35.0K

-37.2K

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

Thursday, October 16

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)

 

19.9

22.5

 

Friday, October 17

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (Sep)

 

1.030M

1.003M

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

 

0.5%

 

 

 

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