EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8138 having gained since the opening on Monday at 0.8049. The euro has picked up momentum

EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8138 having gained since the opening on Monday at 0.8049. The euro has picked up momentum this week on the decline of the US dollar and also on positive moves within the zone, as Greece complete its bond buyback and is now scheduled to receive funding from the EU this month avoiding bankruptcy and the EU Ministers approved a banking supervisor giving broader powers to the ECB to stop future banking crisis. The British Pound shed 0.11 percent as it holds within the previous day’s range. The Bank of England (BoE) Minutes highlight the biggest event risk for the following week, but another uptick in the headline reading for U.K. inflation may pave the way for another test of the 23.6 percent Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6200 as the central bank drops its dovish tone for monetary policy. As above-target inflation threatens the outlook for price stability, the BoE remains poised to shift gears in 2013, and we should see the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) slowly move away from its easing cycle as the region emerges from the double-dip recession.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	0.8138	0.8116	0.8145	0.8098	0.27%
Dec 13, 2012	0.8116	0.8098	0.8120	0.8090	0.22%
Dec 12, 2012	0.8098	0.8073	0.8101	0.8062	0.31%
Dec 11, 2012	0.8073	0.8050	0.8077	0.8044	0.30%
Dec 10, 2012	0.8049	0.8049	0.8059	0.8036	0.00%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-9%	-7%	-7%
	EUR	French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	6.9	-12.0	-15.7
	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	7.6	0.1	-2.6
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
Dec. 12	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.1%
	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%
	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%
	GBP	Claimant Count Change	-3.0K	7.0K	6.0K
	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.4%	0.2%	-2.3%
	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.0%	-0.3%	-0.1%
	CHF	Interest Rate Decision	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-12	-16	-21
	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	44.6	45.0	44.5
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	46.3	47.2	46.8
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.3	46.6	46.2
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.2%
	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)	-0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.4%	1.5%	1.5%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 0.9150 EUR on March 01, 2010.

Average: 1.1548 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.7%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	0.4%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.5%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
Dec. 19	09:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	102.0	101.4
	09:00	EUR	German Current Assessment	108.0	108.1
	09:00	EUR	German Business Expectations	96.3	95.2
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	25	33
	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
Dec. 20	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	-0.8%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	1.5%	0.6%
Dec. 21	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-14.0B	-20.8B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	1.0%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.1%	-0.1%