EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, December 29 – January 2, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7830 down by 24 points on Friday but weakening steadily as the pound remains flat but the euro weakens and is expected to continue to decline.  Cebr Global predicts that Germany will slide back economically, due to its declining population and the likely weakness of the euro, to the extent that Britain will overtake it in 2030 for the first time since 1954 – when the comparison was with West Germany alone.

But if Germany left the euro, the group forecasts that its currency strength would mean that the UK would be unlikely to overtake it until around 2050, by which point Britain’s superior demographics would prove “irresistible”. If Scotland were to leave the UK, Germany would still be well ahead in GDP terms by this point.

The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and forecasts future changes as far ahead as 2030.

The Washington-based International Monetary Fund predicts the U.K.’s GDP will remain slightly smaller than France’s through at least 2017, with an estimate of $2.706 trillion for this year, versus $2.885 trillion for France and $3.664 trillion for Germany.

The European Commission forecasts the U.K.’s economy will expand more than twice as fast as the euro region’s next year at a pace of 2.7 percent. While France and Germany have both suffered output contractions this year, in the U.K. joblessness fell in the third quarter to the lowest level since 2008 amid robust household spending.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 0.9084 EUR on Jul 01, 2011

Average: 0.8351 EUR over this period.

Lowest: 0.7758 EUR on July 22, 2012

 

Major Economic Events for the upcoming week that you should be monitoring: