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Barry Norman
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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2014 Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY is trading at 136.41 gaining 17 points in the Asian session as the euro continued to gain momentum with little in the way of supporting data.  The greenback rose for the third time in four days versus the euro as analysts predict European data today will show industrial production slumped in August. The Tokyo financial markets tried to take stock of recent developments after the Japanese markets were closed on Monday for a public holiday.

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Weak signals from Germany, the euro zone’s largest economy, and signs of uneven growth in China have contributed to recent global growth concerns.

Expected divergence between U.S. monetary policy and those of the euro zone and Japan was a key ingredient fuelling the dollar’s surge to a two-year high versus the euro and six-year peak against the yen at the start of the month.

With Germany’s economic outlook and its potential impact on the Fed’s views on the global economy in recent focus, the currency market will scrutinize Germany’s ZEW sentiment index and euro zone industrial output due later in the session.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

CGPI (YoY) (Sep)

3.5%

3.6%

3.9%

 

 

  JPY

 

CGPI (MoM) (Sep)

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

M2 Money Stock (YoY)

3.0%

2.9%

3.0%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Bus. Confidence

5

 

7

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Survey

1

 

4

 

 

  NZD

 

RBNZ Offshore Holdings

63.70%

 

65.00%

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Wednesday, October 15

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (Sep)

 

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 

-35.0K

-37.2K

 

 

  USD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

 

0.1%

0.0%

 

 

  USD

 

Retail Sales (MoM)

 

-0.1%

0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi  

 

 

   

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country Auction

Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction

Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)

Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction

Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction

Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction

Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23

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