EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

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Updated: Aug 25, 2015, 02:00 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY eased by 4 points to 106.84 after Japanese trade balance numbers. Exports soared beating expectations as the

EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 23, 2014 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY eased by 4 points to 106.84 after Japanese trade balance numbers. Exports soared beating expectations as the adjusted trade balance narrowed with the decline in crude oil and energy prices. Japan racked up its largest-ever trade deficit for the first six months of the year as the economic policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe helped raise demand for imported consumer goods but have so far failed to give a boost to exports. The world’s third-largest economy logged a ¥4.8 trillion ($48 billion) deficit for the period, 66.1% wider than a year before, data from the Ministry of Finance showed Wednesday.

A large part of the problem can be seen in the sharply lower value of the yen. Even though the currency’s fall should eventually help boost exports as Japanese goods become more competitive overseas, it also immediately raises the price of imports. The yen’s fall has also helped exports to the U.S., but it hasn’t been so successful in increasing exports to Europe and China, both of which face their own set of internal economic challenges.

Traders have been trying to decipher moves by the ECB this week as they buy up corporate bonds as markets figure this is a lead in to full scale stimulus program.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
JPY	Adjusted Trade Balance	-1.07T	-0.91T	-0.91T
JPY	Exports (YoY) (Aug)	6.9%	6.8%	-1.3%
JPY	Trade Balance (Sep)	-958B	-777B	-949B
AUD	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.5%	0.4%	0.5%
AUD	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%
AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI	0.4%	0.5%	0.8%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens
NZD	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)		0.5%	0.3%
CNY	HSBC Mfg. PMI		50.2	50.2
EUR	German Mfg PMI		49.5	49.9
EUR	German Services PMI		55.0	55.7
EUR	Manufacturing PMI		49.9	50.3
EUR	Services PMI (Sep)		52.0	52.4
GBP	BBA Mortgage		41.5K	41.6K
GBP	Core Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.2%	0.2%
GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.1%	0.4%
GBP	CBI Industrial Trends		-4	-4
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		282K	264K