EUR/JPY Fundamental Forecast – May 10, 2016

The EUR/JPY added 13 points to trade at 122.29 as the Japanese yen eased a bit in the morning session with traders coming back after a week of holidays in Japan. The euro is down against most of its trading partners except here. Climbing oil prices will take a toll on the Japanese economy as a shift in OPEC seems to be afoot. The release of Bank of Japan meeting minutes this morning gave a deeper insight to a growing split in members.  Some of the BOJ’s nine policy board members said the step to impose a charge on some deposits held by commercial banks had added to “anxiety among financial institutions and depositors” and made the central bank’s policy “difficult to understand,” according to the March 14-15 meeting minutes released Monday.

According to The Japan Times the Bank of Japan will introduce a new measure this month to better assess nationwide consumption trends more accurately, following complaints that the survey conducted by the internal affairs ministry each month is flawed.

Market professionals and private economists says the internal affairs ministry’s household survey, considered a benchmark of consumption, is prone to large monthly fluctuations. One market player says the household survey appears to place too much weight on families with seniors and full-time homemakers.

The central bank has designed new consumption activity index that uses a variety of sales and supply-side statistics on goods and services as its source data. Demand-side statistics are not used.

The BOJ will release the new index on the fifth business day of each month, with the first release, for March, scheduled for Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 09 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

May 09 N/A Ireland Details of bond auction on May 12

May 10 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

May 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 11 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz

May 12 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

May 12 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on May 19

May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction