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EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 10 – 14, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US
Introduction: This is one of the most popular crosses. The primary reason why EUR/JPY has rallied 11 percent over the past 3.5 months is because of US growth – not many people realize that the price action of EUR/JPY is directly correlated with how the US economy is doing.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:
The EUR/JPY ended the week at 106.66 tumbling from the high of the week at 107.96 as traders were sure that with the weak JPY we would see the 108 number for the first time in a long time. That was until the ECB statement from Mr. Draghi on Thursday and his negative outlook for the eurozone. Followed by a downward revision of GDP through 2014, which caught markets off guard. The JPY was already weak with political uncertainty and the Bank of Japan pumping money into the economy
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Dec 07, 2012 |
106.66 |
106.87 |
107.08 |
106.13 |
-0.20% |
|
Dec 06, 2012 |
106.87 |
107.77 |
107.89 |
106.61 |
-0.83% |
|
Dec 05, 2012 |
107.76 |
107.20 |
107.96 |
107.14 |
0.52% |
|
Dec 04, 2012 |
107.20 |
107.31 |
107.40 |
106.93 |
-0.11% |
|
Dec 03, 2012 |
107.32 |
107.18 |
107.58 |
106.86 |
0.14% |
The JYP could not fall any farther and the euro tumbled allowing the pair to regain some momentum and fall to trade as low as 106.13. This week we will see the Tarkan report which might weigh again on the JPY.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Major Economic Events actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 03 |
AUD |
Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) |
-2.9% |
-2.5% |
-0.3% |
|
AUD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.50 |
50.40 |
50.40 |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
49.5 |
51.3 |
51.7 |
|
|
Dec. 04 |
AUD |
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-7.6% |
-2.0% |
9.5% |
|
AUD |
Current Account |
-14.9B |
-14.8B |
-12.4B |
|
|
AUD |
Interest Rate Decision |
3.00% |
3.00% |
3.25% |
|
|
Dec. 05 |
AUD |
GDP (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
118K |
125K |
157K |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) |
2.9% |
2.7% |
1.9% |
|
|
USD |
Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
-0.1% |
|
|
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
54.7 |
53.5 |
54.2 |
|
|
NZD |
Interest Rate Decision |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
Dec. 06 |
AUD |
Employment Change |
13.9K |
0.2K |
10.1K |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
380K |
395K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3205K |
3275K |
3305K |
|
|
Dec. 07 |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
-2.09B |
-2.05B |
-1.42B |
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
146K |
93K |
138K |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
147K |
95K |
189K |
|
|
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
74.5 |
82.4 |
82.7 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010
Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.
Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Dec. 10 |
00:30 |
AUD |
3.0% |
0.9% |
|
|
Dec. 11 |
00:30 |
AUD |
-1 |
||
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-42.5B |
-41.6B |
|
|
Dec. 12 |
13:30 |
USD |
-0.5% |
0.5% |
|
|
|
19:00 |
USD |
-147.5B |
-120.0B |
|
|
Dec. 13 |
23:50 |
JPY |
-10 |
-3 |
|
|
Dec. 14 |
04:30 |
JPY |
1.8% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Dec 10 10:10 Norway
Dec 10 10:10 Slovakia
Dec 10 15:30 UK
Dec 10 16:30 Italy
Dec 11 09:30 Spain
Dec 11 10:10 Greece
Dec 11 10:15 Austria
Dec 11 10:30 Belgium
Dec 11 10:30 UK
Dec 11 18:00 US
Dec 12 10:10 Italy
Dec 12 10:10 Sweden
Dec 12 10:30 Swiss
Dec 12 16:30 US
Dec 13 01:30 Japan
Dec 13 09:30 Spain
Dec 13 10:10 Italy
Dec 13 10:30 UK
Dec 13 16:00 US
Dec 13 18:00 US
Dec 14 11:00 Belgium
Dec 14 15:30 UK
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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