EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

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Updated: Aug 21, 2015, 01:00 UTC

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY almost broke the 110 level climbing as high as 109.98 as the euro gained momentum on final word on the

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis December 17-21, 2012, Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY almost broke the 110 level climbing as high as 109.98 as the euro gained momentum on final word on the Greek bond buyback along with the approval of a Banking Supervisor. The EU seems to be making headway dealing with the banking and financial crisis, even though the zone remains in recession and growth outlooks have been downgraded

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Dec 14, 2012	109.90	109.43	109.98	109.05	0.43%
Dec 13, 2012	109.42	108.74	109.54	108.65	0.63%
Dec 12, 2012	108.74	107.39	109.04	107.27	1.26%
Dec 11, 2012	107.39	106.56	107.45	106.48	0.78%
Dec 10, 2012	106.56	106.57	106.65	105.98	-0.01%

The JPY continues to decline as huge amounts of stimulus are being dumped into the economy in helps of aiding the ailing numbers while political uncertainties weight on the yen, with elections schedule this weekend.

As the economic projections for Japan deteriorates, the polls certainly suggest that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda will be unseated as he struggles to stem the risk for deflation, and we may see the Yen come under increased pressure as Mr. Abe pledges to strengthen the economy by weakening the local currency. However, with 12 different parties running for office, there’s speculation that the opposition leader will be unable to generate enough support to implement changes at the BoJ, and we may see the central bank refrain from embarking on an unlimited asset purchase program in an effort to retain its independence. Indeed, we may see Governor Masaaki Shirakawa continue to clash with Japanese policy makers as the central bank head sees an unlimited easing scheme worsening the national debt, and it seems as though the BoJ will maintain its tepid pace of monetary expansion as the board expects to see positive price growth in the year ahead. Although we anticipate the BoJ to carry its easing cycle into the following year,

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks

Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 10	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	0.1%	3.0%	1.1%
	CNY	Chinese Trade Balance	19.60B	25.70B	32.00B
Dec. 11	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-9		-1
	USD	Trade Balance	-42.2B	-42.6B	-40.3B
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-4.10%		5.20%
	JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	-0.1%	-0.3%	0.2%
Dec. 12	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.9%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	10-Year Note Auction	1.652%		1.675%
	USD	Interest Rate Decision	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-172.1B	-150.0B	-120.0B
Dec. 13	USD	Core PPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	-0.2%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
	USD	PPI (MoM)	-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.5%	-0.3%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	343K	370K	372K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3198K	3210K	3221K
	USD	PPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.8%	2.3%
	USD	Core PPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.2%	2.1%
	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-12	-10	-3
Dec. 14	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	50.90		50.50
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.6%	1.8%	1.8%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.9%	2.2%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.0%
	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.1%	0.3%	-0.7%
	ARS	Argentinian CPI (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.8%

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 134.38 JPY on Jan 11, 2010

Average: 111.13 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on July 24, 2012

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Dec. 17	13:30	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-1.0	-5.2
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		3.3B
Dec. 18	13:30	USD	Current Account	-103.5B	-117.4B
	21:45	NZD	Current Account	-4.40B	-1.80B
Dec. 19	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.875M	0.868M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.870M	0.894M
	21:45	NZD	GDP (QoQ)	0.4%	0.6%