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EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 2 – 6, 2013 Forecast
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/JPY closed the week at 129.70 as the euro eased after troubles in the zone started to hit the news. Greece
The EUR/JPY closed the week at 129.70 as the euro eased after troubles in the zone started to hit the news. Greece and Portugal’s financial problems are once again in the headlines. Eurozone unemployment printed at expectations of 12.1% while German data was supportive of the recovery, but it looks like the recovery is centered on Germany but the other members especially those in southern Europe are not healing. Angela Merkel said this week that Greece should never have been allowed in the EU.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 30, 2013 |
129.70 |
130.14 |
130.33 |
129.31 |
-0.34% |
|
Aug 29, 2013 |
130.14 |
130.34 |
130.53 |
129.99 |
-0.15% |
|
Aug 28, 2013 |
130.34 |
129.75 |
130.56 |
129.72 |
0.46% |
|
Aug 27, 2013 |
129.74 |
131.49 |
131.56 |
129.67 |
-1.33% |
|
Aug 26, 2013 |
131.49 |
132.16 |
132.31 |
131.37 |
-0.51% |
For the Japanese yen the key now is whether this greater economic activity will push companies to raise worker wages. For now, wages have failed to rise along with the broader economy. With other data today showing consumer prices are rising strongly, a failure of wages to keep pace could hurt consumer confidence down the road. As for the investment story, there’ll be another key piece of data Monday when the Ministry of Finance releases its capital expenditure report.
GDP grew a weaker-than-expected 2.6% in the quarter according to preliminary data released earlier this month. An upward revision, which is common in Japan these days, would add more weight to the recovery story.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks
Major Economic Events for the week of August 26-30 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 26 |
13:30 |
USD |
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-0.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) |
-7.3% |
-4.0% |
3.9% |
|
Aug. 27 |
15:00 |
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
81.5 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
|
Aug. 28 |
02:30 |
AUD |
Construction Work Done (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
1.6% |
-1.9% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
|
Aug. 29 |
00:50 |
JPY |
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
02:00 |
AUD |
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) |
-4.7% |
3.4% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
4.0% |
1.0% |
-4.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
331K |
332K |
337K |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
2.5% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
2989K |
2980K |
3003K |
|
|
23:45 |
NZD |
Building Consents (MoM) |
-0.8% |
1.3% |
-4.0% |
|
Aug. 30 |
00:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
00:30 |
JPY |
Tokyo CPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
00:50 |
JPY |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
3.2% |
3.7% |
-3.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
Chicago PMI |
53.0 |
53.0 |
52.3 |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
82.1 |
80.5 |
80.0 |
Historical: From 2011 to Present
Highest: 133.80 JPY on May 22, 2013
Average: 109.45 JPY over this period.
Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Sep. 02 |
00:50 |
JPY |
-3.9% |
||
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
4.0% |
-6.9% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
0.7% |
3.0% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
|
|
|
02:45 |
CNY |
50.1 |
||
|
Sep. 03 |
02:30 |
AUD |
-8.7B |
-8.5B |
|
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
0.4% |
||
|
|
05:30 |
AUD |
2.50% |
2.50% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
54.5 |
55.4 |
|
|
Sep. 04 |
02:30 |
AUD |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
AUD |
2.5% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-38.2B |
-34.2B |
|
|
Sep. 05 |
02:30 |
AUD |
0.05B |
0.60B |
|
|
|
13:15 |
USD |
187K |
200K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.3% |
0.9% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
55.2 |
56.0 |
|
|
Sep. 06 |
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
175K |
162K |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
34.4 |
34.4 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
177K |
161K |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 03 09:10 Norway
Sep 03 09:15 Austria
Sep 03 09:30 Belgium
Sep 03 09:30 UK
Sep 04 09:10 Sweden
Sep 04 09:30 Germany
Sep 05 08:30 Spain
Sep 05 08:50 France
Sep 05 15:00 US
Sep 06 15:30 Italy
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
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