Euro falls against US dollar to start the week

The EUR/USD pair has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, slicing towards the 1.19 level. We even broke down below there for a short amount of time, but I think we may get a short-term bounce, only to offer more selling opportunities. The ECB has recently suggested that quantitative easing may last a bit longer than anticipated, or at the very least tightening monetary policy will take some time. Because of this, the market should continue to drift towards the downside, but I think that the pair will be as volatile as per usual, and of course with high-frequency traders that tend to flock towards this market, that makes a lot of sense.

I believe that the 1.21 level above is a massive “ceiling” in the market, but quite frankly I believe that the 1.20 level underneath should be massive resistance, as it was previous support. So, at this point, this is a “only” market, but it is going to have short-term rallies that you can take advantage of. Be diligent and wait for those opportunities present themselves as signs of exhaustion should have people jumping back into the market. This pair won’t necessarily break down quickly, rather than grind to the downside through most of the summer. I believe that is going to be the story for the next several months, as we could go as low as 1.15 by the time we get to September.

EUR USD Forecast Video 08.05.18