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European Equities: Eurozone and U.S Economic Data in Focus

By:
Bob Mason
Published: Aug 27, 2020, 22:26 UTC

It's a busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Stats from France, Germany, and the U.S will influence on the day.

Stock exchange or bourse

Economic Calendar:

Friday, 28th August

GfK German Consumer Climate (Sep)

French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jul)

French GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Final

The Majors

It was a bearish day for the European majors on Thursday, which reversed Wednesday’s gains. The DAX30 fell by 0.71%, with EuroStoxx600 and CAC30 both declining by 0.64%.

FED Chair Powell’s highly anticipated speech from Jackson Hole failed to support the European majors. The FED’s new plans to support employment and inflation weighed on the banking sector, however.

While there were no stats from the Eurozone to consider, economic data from the U.S was a reminder of what lies ahead.

The general consensus is that the Eurozone economy is showing signs of stalling, with the U.S labor market recovery also hitting a speed bump.

The Stats

It was a particularly quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. There were no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction.

The lack of stats left the focus on economic data from the U.S and FED Chair Powell’s speech from Jackson Hole.

Through the early part of the day, the European majors saw red as a result, with the markets apprehensive. Expectations were for the FED to lay out its new monetary policy approach on Thursday.

From the U.S

It was another relatively busy day on the economic calendar. Key stats included 2nd estimate GDP figures for the 2nd quarter and the weekly jobless claims.

According to 2nd estimate figures, the U.S economy contracted by 31.7% in the 2nd quarter. This was up from the 1st estimate of 32.5% contraction. In the 1st quarter, the economy had contracted by 5%.

On the employment front, initial jobless claims came in at 1.006m in the week ending 21st August. This was down from 1.104m in the previous week while coming in above a forecasted 1m.

The continuing jobless claims fell from a downwardly revised 14,758k to 14,535k in the week.

For the European majors, it was FED Chair Powell’s speech that was the main event. There was no support, however, with the markets having largely anticipated the FED’s latest shift in policy.

Under the new framework, the FED will look to achieve an average 2% inflation rate over time. This would mean that the FED would allow inflation to offset periods of low inflation by hitting above 2% levels. The FED would also support strong labor market conditions and not allow for a fall from maximum levels.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Thursday. BMW and Volkswagen rose by 0.42% and by 0.50% respectively, while Continental and Daimler saw losses of 0.55% and 0.22% respectively.

It was a bearish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank declined by 0.76% and by 0.82% respectively.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen fell by 1.11% and by 1.22% respectively, with Credit Agricole ending the day down by 0.58%.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot slid by 1.97%, with Renault falling by 0.72%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE bucked the trend, rising by 2.41% and by 2.66% respectively.

On the VIX Index

It was a 2nd consecutive day in the green for the VIX on Thursday. Following on from a 5.63% gain on Wednesday, the VIX rose by 5.16% to end the day at 24.47.

The S&P500 and Dow rose by 0.17% and by 0.57% respectively, while the NASDAQ ended the day down by 0.34%.

VIX 28/08/20 Daily Chart

The Day Ahead

It’s a busy day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats include Germany’s consumer climate figures and French GDP, consumer spending and inflation figures.

We would expect Germany’s GfK consumer climate and French consumer spending figures to have the greatest influence.

From the U.S, finalized August consumer sentiment figures and July personal spending and inflation numbers will also influence.

Speeches from the Jackson Hole Symposium and from the U.S administration will also need monitoring on the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was up by 44 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

Bob Masonauthor

With over 20 years of experience in the finance industry, Bob has been managing regional teams across Europe and Asia and focusing on analytics across both corporate and financial institutions. Currently he is covering developments relating to the financial markets, including currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.

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