Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Monday, 12th April

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

Tuesday, 13th April

German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)

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German ZEW Current Conditions (Apr)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Apr)

Wednesday, 14th April

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)

Thursday, 15th April

German CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Mar) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Friday, 16th April

Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Mar) Final

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Mar) Final

Eurozone Trade Balance (Feb)


The Majors

It was a relatively bullish end to the week for the European majors on Friday.

The CAC40 and the EuroStoxx600 rose by 0.06% and by 0.08% respectively, with the DAX30 gaining by 0.21%.

At the end of the week, the upside for the DAX30 came in spite of some disappointing stats from Germany on the day.

More positive news on the EU vaccine front continued to drive market optimism of a rapid economic recovery.

The Stats

It was a busier day on the economic calendar on Friday.

The German economy was back in focus ahead of the European open this morning, with stats from France and Italy also on the docket.


Industrial production fell by 1.6% in February, month-on-month, following a revised 2% decline in January. Economists had forecast a 1.5% rise.

According to Destatis,

  • Production in industry excl. energy and construction was down 1.8%.
  • Within industry, the production of capital goods slid by 3.2%, with the production of intermediate goods falling by 1.0%.
  • The production of consumer goods increased by 0.2%.
  • Outside industry, energy production was down 1.0%, with the production of construction falling 1.3%.
  • Compared with February 2020, the month before the intro of COVID-19 restrictions, production was down 6.4%.

In February, Germany’s trade surplus narrowed from €22.2bn to €19.1bn, versus a forecasted narrowing to €20.0bn.

According to Destatis,

  • Exports rose by 0.9% on the previous month to €107.8bn, while imports increased by 3.6% to €89.7bn.
  • Compared with Feb-2020, exports fell by 1.2%, while imports increased by 0.9%.
  • The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of €18.1bn in February 2021 compared with €20.3bn in February 2020.

Trade with EU countries:

  • Germany exports to the EU slipped by 0.3%, while imports rose by 0.7% compared with February 2020.
  • To euro area countries, German exports fell 0.9%, with imports falling by 0.6%.
  • Goods to EU countries outside of the euro area rose by 1.2%, with imports increasing by 3.7%.

Trade with non-EU countries:

  • Exports of goods to countries outside of the EU fell by 2.3% when compared with February 2020.
  • Imports to non-EU countries increased by 1.1%.

Trade with the UK

  • Compared with Feb-2020, exports to the UK slid by 12.2% in February 2021.
  • Imports from the UK tumbled by 26.9%.

Other notables:

  • To China, exports jumped by 25.7% when compared with February 2020.
  • By contrast, exports to the U.S fell by 0.6%.

Other stats

From France, the stats were also skewed to the negative, with industrial production sliding by 4.7% in February. Economists had forecast a 0.5% rise following a 3.2% increase in January.

Italian retail sales figures were upbeat, however. In February, retail sales jumped by 6.6%, reversing a 2.7% slide from January.

From the U.S

It was another quiet day on the economic calendar, with economic data limited to wholesale inflation figures for March.

The markets were expecting a pickup in wholesale inflationary pressures and there were no disappointments.

The core producer price index rose by 0.7% in March, following a 0.2% increase in February. Month-on-month, the producer price index jumped by 1.0%, following a more modest 0.5% rise in February.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Friday. Daimler rose by 1.12% to buck the trend on the day. Continental slid by 1.47%, however, with BMW and Volkswagen falling by 0.28% and by 0.86% respectively.

It was a bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank declined by 0.44%, with Commerzbank ending the day down by 1.21%.

From the CAC, it was a mixed day for the banks. BNP Paribas and Soc Gen ended the day with losses of 1.04% and 1.60% respectively. Credit Agricole found support, however, eking out a 0.05% gain.

It was a bearish day for the French auto sector, however. Stellantis NV fell by 0.86%, with Renault declining by 1.59%.

Air France-KLM found support, rising by 1.66%, with Airbus SE ending the day up by 0.30%.

On the VIX Index

It was a 3rd consecutive day in the red for the VIX on Friday.

Following on from a 1.22% decline on Thursday, the VIX fell by 1.53% to end the day at 16.69.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.51%, with the Dow and the S&P500 gaining 0.89% and 0.77% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. February retail sales figures for the Eurozone are due out later today.

With little else to consider from the economic calendar, we can expect some market sensitivity to the numbers.

From the U.S, there are no material stats to provide direction, leaving the majors in the hands of COVID-19 news later in the day.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 46 points, while the DAX was up by 20.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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