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Bob Mason
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Economic Calendar:

Tuesday, 9th February

German Trade Balance (Dec)

Italy Industrial Production m/m (Dec)

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Wednesday, 10th February

German CPI (MoM) (Jan) Final

French Industrial Production m/m (Dec)

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

Friday, 12th February

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jan) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jan) Final

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)

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The Majors

It was a relatively bullish start to the week for the European majors on Monday. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 rose by 0.47% and by 0.30% respectively, with the DAX30 eking out a 0.02% gain.

At the open, the DAX30 had hit a record high 14,169.49 before hitting reverse in response to disappointing production figures.

Market hopes of a speedier economic recovery, however, continued to prop up the majors.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar. Key stats included German industrial production figures for December.

In December, industrial production stalled, following a 1.5% increase in the month of November. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise.

According to Destatis,

  • Production in industry excluding energy and construction was up by 0.9%.
  • Within industry, the production of intermediate goods rose by 2.0%, with the production of consumer goods up by 2.6%. The production of capital goods fell by 0.5%.
  • Outside industry, energy production was down by 2.9%, while production in construction was up by 3.2%.
  • Industrial production fell by 1.0% on the same month a year earlier.
  • Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed, production was 3.6% lower.
  • In 2020, production in industry was 8.5% lower than in the previous year.

From the U.S

There were no material stats to provide the European majors with direction late in the European session.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another mixed day for the auto sector on Monday. Volkswagen rose by 0.96%, with Continental gaining a modest 0.08%. BMW and Daimler ended the day with losses of 0.37% and 0.39% respectively, however.

It was a mixed day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rallied by 2.46%, while Commerzbank slipped by 0.60%.

From the CAC, it was another bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rose by 1.20%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen gaining 0.84% and 0.66% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV rallied by 1.80%, with Renault gaining 0.20%.

Air France-KLM and Airbus SE also found support, rising by 0.80% and by 0.48% respectively.

On the VIX Index

A run of 5 consecutive days in the red came to an end for the VIX on Monday. Partially reversing a 4.13% fall from Friday, the VIX rose by 1.77 % to end the day at 21.24.

The Dow and the S&P500 rose by 0.76% and by 0.74% respectively, with NASDAQ gaining by 0.95%.

For the U.S equity markets, Monday’s gains delivered a 6th consecutive day in the green for both the Dow and the S&P500.

There were no stats from the U.S to consider, leaving stimulus fueled optimism to support the majors.

The Day Ahead

It’s another relatively quiet day ahead on the European economic calendar. German trade data and Italian industrial production figures for December are due out later today.

While we can expect German trade data to garner plenty of interest, expect some influence from Italy’s industrial production figures.

From the U.S, JOLTs job opening figures for December will also provide direction.

With U.S labor markets yet to recovery, market sensitivity will be heightened following the disappointing nonfarm payroll figures from last week.

Away from the economic calendar, chatter from Capitol Hill and Draghi’s progress in Italy will also need monitoring.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was down by 23 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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