EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – April 24, 2017

As they say, all is well that ends well. After the last couple of weeks in which the EURUSD was rocked by the polls and counter polls and opinions around the first round of French elections, the elections did happen yesterday and the counting is over as of this writing. As most of the opinion polls leading up to the elections had predicted, Macron won comfortably against Le Pen and as expected, both these candidates now move ahead to the run off on May 7.

Euro Flying High

This was something that was predicted a couple of weeks back but the markets and the euro were a bit jittery over the last week as they were expecting that something like what happened in the US with respect to Trump, could happen in France as well. But the results were generally good for the euro and the traders have shown their relief today morning as the EURUSD pair rocketed through 1.0800 and is now trading above 1.0850 as of this writing.

With the pair now having broken through the difficult resistance region around 1.0750, we are now looking at a revisit to the 1.10 region. But before that, we have a gap up since today morning and with the pair now stabilising, we would now expect it to have a bit of a correction and move back below 1.08 so that it can collect more buyers and then start pushing through on the next leg of the bull run. We expect the pair to make a challenge to the 1.09 and 1.10 region in the short term as we look ahead to the run off on May 7.

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we have the German Ifo Business Climate data later in the London session but we believe that the French election results are likely to dominate the markets for today and tomorrow and we should expect the EURUSD to trade in a very strong manner in the short term.