EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – August 24, 2017

The EURUSD pair consolidates and ranges as it awaits the outcome of the meeting from Jackson Hole that begins today. The exact schedule of the various speeches will be known later in the night today but we can be quite sure that there would be speeches from Draghi and Yellen later in the day tomorrow. These speeches have been the focus of attention this week for the market and that is why we are seeing various pairs move into a tight range.

EURUSD Awaits Jackson Hole

The EURUSD pair has also been coiling itself into a range and the more it coils, the more explosive is the move likely to be. The pair has been freely moving on either side of 1.18 since the beginning of the week as it has been driven by some strong PMI data from the Eurozone and the waxing and waning of the strength of the dollar during the course of the week and this is expected to continue for today as well.

As for the speeches tomorrow, we believe that there is not going to be much special from Draghi and he is likely to repeat more of the same things that he has been saying over the last few weeks. He has already been as hawkish as he can be and hence we believe that there is going to be nothing new. This is going to disappoint that part of the market which believes that he will announce some policy change or something much bigger. If this happens, then we are going to see some selling in the euro which might push it lower.

Looking ahead to the rest of the day, we do not have any major news from the Eurozone while we have the unemployment claims data from the US which is unlikely to have much of an impact on the dollar. Expect some more consolidation and ranging in the EURUSD pair as the market waits.