EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – March 22, 2017

We had mentioned in our forecast yesterday that the EURUSD pair is likely to push through towards 1.0800 and thats what we have been seeing over the past 24 hours as the bulls in this pair have been able to push the pair above 1.0800 for a brief while. We had also mentioned that the region around 1.0800 is likely to have a lot of sellers and that region would hence prove a tough nut to crack. Unless this region is well and truly broken, we do not see much progress beyond this point and again, this is what we saw yesterday as well as the move above 1.0800 was beaten back by the sellers and now we are back below 1.0800.

Euro Bulls in Control

But to the credit of the bulls, they continue to trade strongly and the EURUSD has not fallen like a rock but this move below 1.0800 looks more like a correction of the upmove as the prices continue to hold the range highs. We are likely to see some consolidation here and probably another shot at the range highs during the course of the day. The bulls have been encouraged by the news from the opinion polls in France which favor Macron as the next President and this has led to a sigh of relief in the Euro region as his opponent, Le Pen, was known to be against the concept of the Euro.

The bulls have also been cheered by the general bullish tone from the ECB who have been noting an improving economy within the Eurozone and a combination of these factors has helped to strengthen the euro. To add to this, we are seeing the dollar struggling to make any significant gains despite the rate hike last week and so there is the real possibility that the bulls might keep pushing the pair and once it is cleanly above 1.0850, we should see the pair move towards 1.10.

Looking ahead to today, we do not have any major news from the Eurozone or the US region and so we could see another push to the range highs. If traders are long, they can take something off at this point and wait for a clean break of 1.0850 to load again.